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March 2023 Mid-Long Range Discussion thread


Holston_River_Rambler
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FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point.  Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th.  I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro has a high of 68F on the 7th, and on the 11th (fantasy land).....28F w/ upslope snow and a slop sliding along a frontal boundary to our SE as the run ends.  It will likely not go down like that, but the flip to cold could be SHARP!

28F would be about 30 degrees below normal, which would be the equivalent of having a high near 90 in Mid March.

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To be clear regarding the hot water heater, I am not sure we could get it out of the backyard because it still had water in it.  The spout was clogged with deposits, and it wouldn't drain.  I turned it over on its side and left there for a few days.  I am sure the neighbors were loving it.  LOL.  The is the "bad hot water heater" pattern (BHWH).

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1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said:

28F would be about 30 degrees below normal, which would be the equivalent of having a high near 90 in Mid March.

Real feels are in the teens and low 20s if I remember correctly.  I am going to enjoy my peach tree blooming, because we aren't getting peaches this year.  LOL.  If it weren't at d8-9, I would post the departures map, and may anyway at some point.  The mountains were 40 degrees below normal.  As I said earlier, if the folks hiking the Appalachian Trail started early, they better have a plan come March 10th.

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In fantasy land just to show how extreme a run the Euro was, the control has SE KY, SW VA, and portions of NE TN....below zero for temps w/ snow on the ground at hour 300.  This is a pattern where the cold really doesn't dump into the West first due to the Atlantic block.  It comes straight down the Plains or over the Lakes.  The only thing that modifies that air is length of day and lack of snow pack.

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37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

FWIW, I think the mountains of E TN and W NC get buried at some point.  Winter is shifting from the West to the East for a couple of weeks from March 10th to ~25th.  I think I will possibly see at least a trace of snow which will seem like a minor miracle after several days in the 70s and wearing shorts.

I agree with you wholeheartedly with this . In actuality, i'm confident of measurable snow even in Valley Locations south to I-40 and quite possibly further South. Alot of cold waiting in the wings with transporting Driver's aligning. Also, STJ has been pretty juicy and the real possibility of Miller A Cyclogenesis exists, imo...

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40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am a sucker when it comes for an extreme run.  This is the Euro control 7-day mean for d8-15.  That is HIGHLY unlikely, but what a wild map.  For those new to following the forum, those are departures from normal and NOT actual temps...but still.

Screen_Shot_2023-03-02_at_3.20.44_PM.png

 

I borrowed this map to post in our forum. Hope you don't mind but it's very compelling.  If so ill take it down. 

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I borrowed this map to post in our forum. Hope you don't mind but it's very compelling.  If so ill take it down. 

Sure.  Here is the mean.  This is probably more realistic.  And I am pretty sure the 12z run was colder...these Weeklies were derived from 0z.  Crazy map for 30d.

Screen_Shot_2023-03-02_at_4.06.48_PM.png

 

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Things that make you go hmmmm.  Look closely at the dates.  Hot off the press.  I am tired of tracking stuff in the d10-15 range.  Let's real this in folks.  Just 400 more runs of the operational before we hit pay dirt.  Remember w/ El Nino patterns:  Jan/Feb are the months...and sometimes only Feb.  Usually a delayed start to winter, everybody gets frustrated, and then winter hits.  With this run...December was warm.  Jan - cool. Feb - cold.  On this run, Kingsport got 75" of snow.  TYS only got 5" for the season.  

Screen_Shot_2023-03-02_at_7.41.55_PM.png

 

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28 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


a4a96fa879c56e05fe0d18e5e5bcfa61.png


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Of course we get a good pattern now. One thing is winter weather is certainly more explosive in March. Even if it doesn't amount to much, a snow shower in March can be an exciting, bombastic affair. I've experienced a snow squall this time of year that was essentially a summer afternoon storm with snow. Don't know if we will get anything big, but March snow can be fun to watch at least. Maybe we can all get a bit of fun to end this winter. 

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Of course we get a good pattern now. One thing is winter weather is certainly more explosive in March. Even if it doesn't amount to much, a snow shower in March can be an exciting, bombastic affair. I've experienced a snow squall this time of year that was essentially a summer afternoon storm with snow. Don't know if we will get anything big, but March snow can be fun to watch at least. Maybe we can all get a bit of fun to end this winter. 

Once we started realizing a month back that this winter wasn’t going to go as planned, I was thinking we would probably cap this winter off with a dreadful start to spring. For it to snow, we need about 20+ degrees BN and at night between 9pm and 6am. It’s easy to get through a TSA checkpoint at the airport with a grenade launcher strapped on than it is to get snow past February.


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Overnight CMC was interesting. Euro wasn't too far off. 

CMC:

gem_z500_vort_us_34.png

 

Euro:

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_58.png

 

CMC absolutely crushes the MA, Le Conte gets 33 inches lol. 

 

Pretty good ensemble support for something big somewhere in the east, as others have said:

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

 

And yes snowmaker it probably is too late and it will probably be cold and dry. Ideally we would get some trees good and loose today so that when their upper branches with buds freeze later this month and we get some good winds, then they'll blow over.  :drunk:

 

 

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Yeah, overnight runs across modeling continued the trend of a very active STJ and HL blocking.   If this was January, those storms might get sent to Cuba.  Because of it being March, we will have a tough time keeping them South of us....but for now, that is what modeling is depicting in general.

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Thunder in the mountains today?....If we can simply say that modeling is going to be all over the place and ignore details, we might be able to find some storm tracks.  The Euro takes the system around the 10th and cuts through middl TN.  No surprise given the seasonal tracks.  It has wrap around snow and is cold.  Cold is pretty much on the table as a very highly likely scenario.  Here are the last two GFS operational runs.   I have no idea which we will see, but that is a pretty interesting couple of model runs for middle to late March.  In Strava, they have local legends for running segments.  @Holston_River_Rambleris in the running for the local legend if we get snow during March.   

Screen_Shot_2023-03-03_at_6.42.34_AM.pngScreen_Shot_2023-03-03_at_6.42.21_AM.png

 

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