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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All kidding aside, GFS has closed the gap by a good margin. Euro still probably superior, but not like it was 5 years ago.

Yeah it's too bad that it's become more unreliable over the last couple years. 

I don't really see it better than the GFS anymore. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's too bad that it's become more unreliable over the last couple years. 

I don't really see it better than the GFS anymore. 

Agree... While I still sometimes anxiously await the arrival of the Euro, I'm getting pretty comfortable dealing with the combo of the GFS & mesos.  

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's too bad that it's become more unreliable over the last couple years. 

I don't really see it better than the GFS anymore. 

I still see issues with both, but they're not the same.

ex, the GFS has a subtle progressive/speed shearing bias.  contrasting, the Euro tries for to expand ridging to a bit too earnestly through the mid range...

These aren't completely obvious to anyone given a single run, but it's just something one might notice if they pour over a lot of cycles over extended periods - which no hobbyist in here every does that, huh ....haha  kidding

but yea

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1 minute ago, WeatherWilly said:

The doomers have affected CNN it seems:

"Boston and New York City are gearing up for their biggest snow of the season – and it’s not even that much"

I agree Boston won't get as much but while 6-7 inches isn't historic, we have had many winters where such a storm was the biggest of the season. 

looks more like a general 2-4", haven't really looked at NY

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RAP continues to really amped up that leading band for the pike region....12z run had almost nothing for BOS prior to 09-10z but now it has like 3" of snow in that band by that point.

It also has a little CJ band coming in from the ocean. Starts out as a weak inv trough type thing, but retros west as the boundary layer flow turns to E-ESE. That would move into ern areas and adjacent SNH and ME.

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16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

East slope enhancement vs shadowed?    I also think sometimes the models are a bit off with topography

The IVT tomorrow really would favor eastern slopes of ORH hills with that light easterly glide. The enhancement has been showing up on a lot of mesos.

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9 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

The Graup has an issue, took the sea bus from ACK to BOS to fly to JFK tomorrow morning. the Graups gonna have issues and their ain’t a damn thing I can do about it, so Turks and Caicos won’t feel the wrath of the mountain of molten manhood tomorrow, the Graup ! 

Doesn't sound like you have a very good strangle hold on the situation.

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