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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Valleys always seem to get bent over a bit 

I punted winter in December so it’s really whatever, but if it’s going to snow I want to maximize potential.

Regardless, tomorrow will be beautiful and I never take that for granted. I love the last minute trend.

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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro going to bump up qpf too like the other 12z guidance.

wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th.  I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that in unfortunately still true:  two events of similar handling, inside a the same governing pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior.  So, any modeling errors in handling the predecessor ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating.

That's just logic. 

I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus.  

But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th.  I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that still true:  two events of similar handling, in a similar pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior.  So, any modeling errors in handling that ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating.

That's just logic. 

I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus.  

But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this.

Not that you guys care about the 2nd, But that's the next one here before the 4th so that's the one i'm onto now to see if we tick that colder.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeesh, that's a brutal job by the Euro...look at how different 00z run was

Know what's gonna happen?

this thing is going to 15 inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s

watch

LOL

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro going to bump up qpf a couple tics too like the other 12z guidance.

EURO really ramped up for CT , after it sniffed out the southward trend first, it's really been owned by the GFS in regards to precip output for this event , considering a cave 12-18 hours out.. 

Much better for the rest of SNE New England as well.. 

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO really ramped up for CT , after it sniffed out the southward trend first, it's really been owned by the GFS in regards to precip output for this event , considering a cave 12-18 hours out.. 

Much better for the rest of SNE New England as well.. 

Its much better all around actually, These NE ticks are good up here too, 12z guidance is now getting us into low end warning area here.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Not that you guys care about the 2nd, But that's the next one here before the 4th so that's the one i'm onto now to see if we tick that colder.

Oh I do..   In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. 

I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that.  Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know what's gonna happen?

this thing is going to 15" inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s

watch

LOL

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us1223.php

(btw, that reference never gets old, lol)

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh I do..   In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. 

I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that.  Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day -

Yeah, I do think that one plays a roll too for the 4th, Track wise anyways.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1997/us1223.php

(btw, that reference never gets old, lol)

HO man... hahaha...  'Magine if that happened?   10 -20" followed by 3r/4th.

Here's the deal.  I'm at 24.5" on the season.  If I were get 7" (may be a stretch ...feel better about that much down by you) ...I'm over 30.   4" of Advisory on the 2nd is say 35" ...  uh oh!  Don't look now but the GFS is too far NW and we get 17" out of the 4th and we're staring down the barrel of a -EPO mid March with a relaxing NAO ... hm

Above average seasonal snow fall would just be some incredibly delicious frosting, icing over a particularly rancid dogshit cake of a season. HAHAHA

And it's not like that pattern canvas looks anything like this ...what? with a negative anomaly tucked SW like that.  heh

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