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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These early 0Z are modestly weaker overall. 

I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing sw to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. 

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing se to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. 

This does have more upside if the Euro is right but even if the other models are right that would be a great result. 12-18 inches with another monster a few days later.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see how this can attain upper echelon status unless euro/eps continue to hammer a quicker secondary transfer with the addition of infusing the trailing se to capture/stall. Gfs/cmc/icon are great, no doubt, but more of the standard NewEng 12-18” events away from the coast. I’ll hedge that way even though euro/eps found the snow first. 

That is fair...could def see that

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Hey at least there's something on offer, and the most likely 3-4 day error with these transfers is that they delay the energy pass, that can work both ways for outcomes. In this case (Feb 28-Mar 1) I think you want a fast energy transfer before the low gets past about Cleveland. I don't think there's much chance of an upper echelon type of storm but 6-10" looks feasible. The second one is too far off to do much more than hope, it has the right look also.

March seems to be the month for these coastal transfer type storms, you hardly ever see them in other months.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro often over phases, so that wouldn't suprise me. Bottom line is a significant event is likely.

Agree, increasing confidence in our biggest event of the season for SNE (a pretty low bar).

Blockbuster is definitely still on table, but there are many more paths to pedestrian as illustrated tonight.

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