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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm wondering what that's going to do to next Winters weather? Also, I know I've heard strong El nino, low hurricane season. Season. But this season was a la Nina and we had hardly any hurricanes or storms for that matter. I guess we'll see what happens

 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d imagine We don’t want a strong one…

Of course not

We don't want anything strong 

O well onto winter 2024-2025

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Strong Nino is fine....you just don't want a Super Nino.

I don't have snowfall statistics but we've had Strong Nino's (especially early in the 1900's) which the pattern certainly looked like it could favor decent snow chances and those winters weren't blow torches either. It is interesting though that the warmest strong Ninos have occurred since the 80's. 

My list of Strong EL Nino's (super strong is ****)

image.png.1dd5a784829e124b8fa7aeff2362ee08.png

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The other thing is this. We had a La Nina for this past Winter and look at the record amount of Snow and Rain that the West got..and not the Northwest, but California..Nevada..Utah...ect... So.. there can and will be other factors at play with The El Nino coming. 

I've learned that there is ZERO guarantee of suggesting that next Winter will either great or bad ( just look at what happened this Winter for us here ). 

Not sweating anything until we actually start and are well into December to get somewhat of a good read on what may happen for 2023/2024 Winter. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The other thing is this. We had a La Nina for this past Winter and look at the record amount of Snow and Rain that the West got..and not the Northwest, but California..Nevada..Utah...ect... So.. there can and will be other factors at play with The El Nino coming. 

I've learned that there is ZERO guarantee of suggesting that next Winter will either great or bad ( just look at what happened this Winter for us here ). 

Not sweating anything until we actually start and are well into December to get somewhat of a good read on what may happen for 2023/2024 Winter. 

There were certainly stretches this winter where the regime was more "Nino like" then La Nina. With the weakening Nina the atmospheric/oceanic coupling began to weaken. This is another major part of ENSO and it's influence on the pattern too. There is an atmospheric component of ENSO and oceanic. The pattern will be more reflective of what you would expect in a given ENSO state when the atmosphere and ocean are strongly coupled. 

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7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

What's the verdict for Saturday? Couple showers and not a washout, get in the warm sector? 

If we're lucky, we'll break into some clearing in the afternoon....but right now, looks pretty rainy in morning and then again when the front comes through later in evening.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Of course not

We don't want anything strong 

O well onto winter 2024-2025

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

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29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

This.

Intensity is vastly overrated, unless its uber-strong, like 2.0 ONI and upwards...its just about impossible to get an event that powerful to be a modoki because the prevalence of the WWBs is prohibitive to a modoki type of evolution.

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The other thing is this. We had a La Nina for this past Winter and look at the record amount of Snow and Rain that the West got..and not the Northwest, but California..Nevada..Utah...ect... So.. there can and will be other factors at play with The El Nino coming. 

I've learned that there is ZERO guarantee of suggesting that next Winter will either great or bad ( just look at what happened this Winter for us here )

Not sweating anything until we actually start and are well into December to get somewhat of a good read on what may happen for 2023/2024 Winter. 

That is patently false. You can get a pretty good idea more often than not if you properly diagnose ENSO.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Frosty morning.  I had a dream that Steve was doing pbp on an early but low res 0z euro run.  Finally when sv came out the low took an unusual path from the lower gulf around the Florida peninsula and up the coast.  As the burial was about to begin I awakened as I needed to take my wife for an early appointment.  Put that one in your blog for next winter Ray!

Very plausible with a stronger el nino....

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't have snowfall statistics but we've had Strong Nino's (especially early in the 1900's) which the pattern certainly looked like it could favor decent snow chances and those winters weren't blow torches either. It is interesting though that the warmest strong Ninos have occurred since the 80's. 

My list of Strong EL Nino's (super strong is ****)

 

The bold makes perfect since in a sort of ad hoc assumption...

90% of the "warming" in the Globe and Warming concept has thus far been absorbed by the oceans.

Assuming that delta goes back to the Industrial Revolution ... ?  - don't quote that.  Not sure what the time dependency is wrt to that value, and it matters.  It may be more recent ... guess it's short Google work. heh. 

But if that 90% is say... during this last 40 years of "hockey stick" accelerated(ing) change? Other than being alarming, ...that might also explain why the Ninos have trended warmer over that same span of time.  

Seems bush arithmetic works.  If/when the pattern of sea stressing and wind flux anomalies in the quasi couple marine-atmospheric NINO mode, there is thus more warmth available to that system. Almost seems comically obvious. Except ... 

It arouses a question in my mind about the "anomaly" comparisons. 

Are the NINO vs NINA eras strictly based upon historic neutrality of the SS temperatures?  Or is there a "relativity" supplied to those calculations.   I think that's important, because if the ambient SSTs are ...whatever fractionally warmer than normal, than that may supplement the NINO periods with additional heat that gooses those values.   I'm sure with all the PHD's they have working on Global monitoring ...enslaving their red-eyed grad student TA's to do that actual monitoring work... something like that "should" be easily considered but probably is missed LOL.   kidding... 

There was a "Super NINO" over the last 8 years... The actual climate response was rather mediocre, however.  There was conjecture in the ambit ...but I don't recall much very in depth research/follow-up on it.  But it was like a near historic warm episode that sort of came and went the hemisphere(s) seemed to eat the momentum. Weird.  You know ... truth be told ... my cartoon way of reasoning makes me want to think that the 'obviousness' above was in fact missed, and the warmer oceans overall elevated the NINO scalar value, ...not an indication of it's differential to the whole planetary system ...thus it was weaker impact.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Strong Nino is fine....you just don't want a Super Nino.

For 3 Maine sites - CAR, PWM, Farmington for which I've compared snowfall for ENSO status, the difference could hardly be different. 
3-site averages:  Strong, 116%, highest for any ENSO.  Very Strong, 74%, lowest ENSO.  CAR is slightly lower in a moderate Nino; otherwise, the highest/lowest fits for each site.

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

Both winters killed our area with suppression, but the temps and precip could hardly have been more different.  2002-03 was very cold and driest of 25 winters here.  2009-10 was very mild and wettest of 25.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

For 3 Maine sites - CAR, PWM, Farmington for which I've compared snowfall for ENSO status, the difference could hardly be different. 
3-site averages:  Strong, 116%, highest for any ENSO.  Very Strong, 74%, lowest ENSO.  CAR is slightly lower in a moderate Nino; otherwise, the highest/lowest fits for each site.

you realize 2002-03 and 2009-10 were both borderline strong, right? the placement of the anomalies matters more, anyway. I would much rather have a strong Modoki instead of a weak-moderate east-based Nino

Both winters killed our area with suppression, but the temps and precip could hardly have been more different.  2002-03 was very cold and driest of 25 winters here.  2009-10 was very mild and wettest of 25.

Love me some 2002-2003.....I would take a re-try of the 2009-2010 pattern, but all set with a replica redux.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Frosty morning.  I had a dream that Steve was doing pbp on an early but low res 0z euro run.  Finally when sv came out the low took an unusual path from the lower gulf around the Florida peninsula and up the coast.  As the burial was about to begin I awakened as I needed to take my wife for an early appointment.  Put that one in your blog for next winter Ray!

Nice was I naked?

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46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strong can be fine, depending on placement, but you can take a high-end season for SNE off of the table with a strong....not that its particularly likely in a given season , anyway.

57-58? 

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This sounds fun.

Tonight
Occasional snow showers, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow between 9pm and 1am. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -22. Very windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 43 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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