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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Still a phantom for now but it keeps showing up in some way... one eye on it

A GFS-esque solution was much more threatening for SNE....had deep layer easterly flow and it was plenty cold enough just off the coast. Euro solution is close, but I'd perfer the ULL to track a bit further south....a BUF-MSV-BID H5 ULL track isn't exactly ideal for SNE unless the antecedent airmass is really strong, which is rare in a late season event like this.

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7 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Weird, I thought I had posted the 6z lol…either way we got the nuke expected on the euro


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Outside of elevation this is a rainstorm for SNE, same issues as last storm plus climo is more unfavorable now. Euro clown gives me 8 inches of snow. I don’t buy that at all, I strongly believe I won’t even see a single flake, never mind 8 inches of snow. 

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13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Outside of elevation this is a rainstorm for SNE, same issues as last storm plus climo is more unfavorable now. Euro clown gives me 8 inches of snow. I don’t buy that at all, I strongly believe I won’t even see a single flake, never mind 8 inches of snow. 

GFS type solution would not be....elevaiton still would play a big role, but it wouldn't be quite like last week's storm because it doesn't have that primary low appendage sticking in CT...so you'd see more widespread snowfall on that type of look. Elevations would still do better since the ratios would be better for them.

But this is all theoretical since the storm is 6-7 days out.

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GFS type solution would not be....elevaiton still would play a big role, but it wouldn't be quite like last week's storm because it doesn't have that primary low appendage sticking in CT...so you'd see more widespread snowfall on that type of look. Elevations would still do better since the ratios would be better for them.
But this is all theoretical since the storm is 6-7 days out.

There must be a lot of eps members that are more GFS like because this is one helluva mean. Bunch of members that even snow down here close to Philly
5bd6b6223182273fcee05f661da11449.jpg


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3 minutes ago, Heisy said:


There must be a lot of eps members that are more GFS like because this is one helluva mean. Bunch of members that even snow down here close to Philly
5bd6b6223182273fcee05f661da11449.jpg


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Yes, there were quite a few EPS members that were pretty big snows well south into SNE and a few even into the Mid-atlantic.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on given the cross-model support and ensemble support....but I'll probably wait until Friday if it's still there before taking it seriously.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

If something exotic like that ended up verifying I could push #2 snowiest overall while parts of SNE are #2 least snowiest overall.

Your #2 is 3 feet below #1 and might be vulnerable.  #2 here is 42" above my YTD (it's 00-01 so before your records) while #3 (16-17) is 31" ahead.  14-15 is in 4th place with 112.8" so if things break right, we might get there, but top 3 look out of reach - April 2007 isn't walking thru the door.

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

Looks like last week again with a big elevation event on the gfs. That gradient near Worcester was insane, just 10 or so miles between nearly 2 feet and just a few inches. 

I was in the north part of Worcester today, they still have some decent piles and a lot of patches of snow in the shade. 

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5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I was in the north part of Worcester today, they still have some decent piles and a lot of patches of snow in the shade. 

Yeah I was out on winter hill a couple days ago and there was still full coverage there but literally a mile away to the southeast had almost nothing except piles. There’s prob still full coverage just a few miles further into Holden today. 

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