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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s definitely an interesting look…but isn’t he a Twitter Met that just honks to get clicks?  

Winter is Coming (whether you like it or not)

I’ve identified a data point for the upcoming winter forecast…
As I watch the tropics for development, it has come to my attention that 4 times in past 30 years has the Atlantic had no named storm activity between July 3rd and August 3rd: 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2009.

Given the huge amount of Saharan Dust that has been blown over the Atlantic(seen on satellite imagery), it seems extremely unlikely that anything will develop over the next several days. So, assuming no storms develop, we can use past years as an indicator for how the Winter might turn out.

Think back to 1993-1994, 1999-2000, 2000-2001, and 2009-2010. How do you remember those winters?

~Meteorologist Mark Margavage

 
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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean west coast troughing or actual neg PNA? The PNA actually wasn't extremely negative this season...but when it was + (especially in January), it was biased far to the west, which mimicked a strong neg PNA.

Obviously that is a neg pna in the means.

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53 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

My zone has 100% chance of snow Saturday night.  Very confident so far out.  But no matter...I'll be on my way to Vegas.

Euro is sloppy up here. Looks like a couple inches of glop transitioning from S to IP to ZL.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That would be nice…if they can’t figure the dam thing out, they should just go back to the old set up from 7-8 yrs ago, before that first upgrade that f’d it up; the thing was incredible before that upgrade…inside 4 days it was lights out. 

Agreed, but with our luck we'll probably wind up with the new paraplegic Euro, like that GFS thing from a few years back...

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

He was talking about New England though…? 

Its actually a rainstorm for SNE too mostly....maybe a little frozen in highest terrain. But it's close enough that it could end up snowier on a future solution.

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Yeah that is LOL with that upper air look....I'd believe a burial for Monads to dendrite on that run....maybe into N ORH county and Berks, but not the rest of SNE....we'd prob get a couple inches of slop at the end in reality.....now shift that ULL a little further south (like even 75-100 miles) and we're talking a different ballgame.

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