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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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48 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The volcano fuked us. Research showing correlation with neg PNA is out. 

Could be... 

You know, I've had a problem with the western N/A bombardment all winter frankly. Firstly, it's not deep science exactly to reveal it hasn't really correlated too well with NINA.  These so-called 'river' events are actually more NINO like ...etc..etc ( but the use of the term in media as it pertains to this season annoys me because a true river event is  more perpetual with a clearer STJ origin in the tropical/lower boreal winter latitude interface. This season was more about an active polar periodicity of S/Ws... it's not really the same).

Anyway, the Pacific Basin uncoupled from the La Nina baseline for 3 to 4 weeks between late November and late December 2022, but even after that had passed ... the pattern seemed to quasi occupy both spaces much of the way.

It was either a lesser typically realized variant of NINA totality ... just not recognized ( perhaps ) for that rarity.   OR, something else was offsetting ...at times succeeding more interference. The SE ridging at times isn't a terrible NINA fit, incidentally.

It was funny that there were all these immediate suppressing conjectures that rang out of the science ambit in the weeks following that titanic blast.  I didn't know... I didn't have any insight one way or the other, but as more of a spectator to it all ... I thought that was a bit presumptive to be so quick without more staged investigation.   It was like a earth's syringe poked a whole in the stratosphere and injected toxin directly in - to be fun with ... just sayn'   It's water vapor and other gunk from bowls of the planet - I was more of the school of watch and wait.  

I haven't actually read any papers ... but I'll try and find - it wouldn't shock me if the skeptics were premature.

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Looks like we're back to some velocity aspects with that thing riding up a burgeoning SE ridge.  It's really Saturday afternoon and night and by dawn on Sunday that's probably got a clearing back of the head racing away and leaving strata streets moving NW/SE in splashes of sun/breeze during the morning. "IF" that can speed up even a little more, Sunday has some d-slope aspect to it. Not terrible...  It probably does correct faster, because that's a pretty dependable result ... in early out early when these S/W are running up gradient like that.

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13 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

hard not to make a single error with these and catch it. especially in photoshop where there is no spell check. Check out the NWS regional snowfall graphic they made.

Can you spot the error in this one? There may be more than one, but i see at least one. It's fun, like word search lol

FriOKyYXsAIZn-1.thumb.jpg.42c3638fdc7c70f435c36fc2eb813a7a.jpg

Not an official mistake, but CAR's least snowy winter was undoubtedly 1943-44.  Unfortunately, there's no records for March, but using nearby/similar sites (Fort Kent; PQI measurements are off-base low) would show that CAR that season had ~60".  Long ago (early '80s) I read that 43-44 had 58.5 but I've not seen corroborating evidence.

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16 hours ago, gonegalt said:

Even after grooming is down the trails get smoother and smoother every day as the melt settles and firms again with the night freeze. Sleep in then go out as the surface re-softens and TEAR IT UP.

Spring riding is the smoothest of all.

Somewhat ironic that the northern (and mountain) Maine trails become more durable this time of year.  Same goes for skid trails - this would be the time that skidder-chainsaw crews would work the cedar swamps.  Break trails in the afternoon and next morning it's like driving on a gravel road.

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33 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Somewhat ironic that the northern (and mountain) Maine trails become more durable this time of year.  Same goes for skid trails - this would be the time that skidder-chainsaw crews would work the cedar swamps.  Break trails in the afternoon and next morning it's like driving on a gravel road.

These spring days the snow is rideable everywhere. But bring gas with you.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

The volcano fuked us. Research showing correlation with neg PNA is out. 

You mean west coast troughing or actual neg PNA? The PNA actually wasn't extremely negative this season...but when it was + (especially in January), it was biased far to the west, which mimicked a strong neg PNA.

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