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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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There really is no reason to believe this spring won't act like the past several have. Sure we'll have our nice days, but they won't be consistent. More times then not it will be chilly and you can bet at least NNE will see accumulating snow chances through April. We'll probably flip the switch to summer late June. 

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean if there was a pattern for late season snow chances, it’s what is coming up. Very blocky.

Its funny how I have largely hit on the pattern, insane Jan warmth notwithstanding, yet my seasonal snow totals are going to be high for much of SNE. And I remember last fall having to explain why my snowfall totals were relatively "low" given the pattern advertised.

Never get asked that question again- :lol:

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its funny how I have largely hit on the pattern, insane Jan warmth notwithstanding, yet my seasonal snow totals are going to be high for much of SNE. And I remember last fall having to explain why my snowfall totals were relatively "low" given the pattern advertised.

Never get asked that question again- :lol:

you had a great outlook but snow is so difficult to predict .. if this winter played out 10 times, this has to be bottom 2 in snowfall. 

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Just now, ma blizzard said:

you had a great outlook but snow is so difficult to predict .. if this winter played out 10 times, this has to be bottom 2 in snowfall. 

Yea, that is what I hope people understand....don't get me wrong, I will heavily weigh the fact that I blew snowfall into the grading....but its such a crapshoot. I will say, though....the PNA has been more negative than I thought.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is what I hope people understand....don't get me wrong, I will heavily weigh the fact that I blew snowfall into the grading....but its such a crapshoot. I will say, though....the PNA has been more negative than I thought.

What I should say is the PNA being biased so far to the west is what killed snowfall...it actually hasn't been that negative. This is why the devil is in the details...on paper, you look at the PNA and think that its not a deal breaker.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man what a pack NNE will have for spring skiing. I would give Ray's left nut to be able to ski again especially this year. I could see PF Phin Western Maine Mts with 3 plus feet over the ten days after Thursday. 

Backyard pack at 1900’ is still just shy of my 4’ deck railing.  Should lose some weds/Thurs, but net gain after this weekend.  Jay will go weekends only for May, but man, they could make almost june this year.

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Personally, I've had an outstanding winter season for general risk/threat assessment periods.

However, the periods ( time spans...) themselves only materialized oddities - most of which in very fair terms were oddly under performing.

Pure emotion op ed:  Yeah, this was not a good winter. Particularly for the 'model spectator cinema' pastime.

As far as snow, I'm sitting at 40" give or take....in an area of interior SNE that tends ~ 1/3 more so over that as a seasonal average. Now ... I don't typically gripe for low snow numbers (myself) ... but if one is really looking to put snow on the Earth?  yeeah, this was less than a C-grade imho... Trying for logic in a jilted malaise takes a bit of bravery at times when seeking constructive qualitative remarks ...lol, but when you come up with less than average on any test... that is by definition a f'n failure. Done deal.  Ungood winter per that metric alone.  But then adding to that just how the cinema in watching 100% ( not exaggeration) of all (lower frequency too) events under perform within a dearth of risk periods. It's like the movie reel is skipping back to the beginning of that washroom scene in Shawshank to a captive audience.   

Though I am not certain, I don't think it was very good for other winter enthusiast/recreational interests, either.  It just seems there was very little redeeming value to this 4 or so months, overall.  I can't find much. I'm sure those that hail from NNE may have different perceptions on matters.. but, the eastern OV/MA/ combined with SNE is a much bigger damning space. 

Incidentally ... the northern Lakes to the N/Plains and N Missouri valley region is under the gun for spring floods. I was reading these regions have 150% ( ave) with greater regions, encased with snow that has a water content that is in the top 10%tile of climatology for snow/hydro ratio.  Beyond their flood monitoring efforts...  it's an interesting large continental environmental factor for assessing the heat in N/America this summer... at least the first 45 or so days of it...

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1 minute ago, tunafish said:

No complaints from me, but I'm at 56" so the gradient is real.  I have a shot at average (67").

Any chance this track on this thing hugs and I get rain?

There is, Temps are very borderline, Going to depend on the secondary and how fast it redevelops.

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13 hours ago, dryslot said:

Looks like the game is still on for some, I think your area should get it done as well as the other elevations in the Northeast, Been some great stretches where all the snow has fallen, Been feast or famine actually, Odd winter, This one is going to go down as a back loaded winter one for sure after looking quite bleak as you mention, Even here in the coastal plain, We will finish above normal even if no other flakes fall.

Not all back-loaded here. 
It may be a stretch, but this snow season reminds me of G6 of the 1975 WS - Sox jump out to a 3-0 lead (the mid-Dec 22" dump) then the Reds catch up and pass, leading 6-3 late (the 12/23 deluge and record warm Jan).  The Bernie Carbo 3-run dinger to tie the game was like the 29" we've had Feb 28-on.  Now we just need Fisk's barely fair walk-off analogy, like a 32-33° blue bomb.  (or 2 :D)

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Not all back-loaded here. 
It may be a stretch, but this snow season reminds me of G6 of the 1975 WS - Sox jump out to a 3-0 lead (the mid-Dec 22" dump) then the Reds catch up and pass, leading 6-3 late (the 12/23 deluge and record warm Jan).  The Bernie Carbo 3-run dinger to tie the game was like the 29" we've had Feb 28-on.  Now we just need Fisk's barely fair walk-off analogy, like a 32-33° blue bomb.  (or 2 :D)

And would a crappy back-door April/May be the the game 7 loss that everyone agrees to never mention?

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