Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

EC and GFS have the MJO in phase 8 (very strong) for the entirety of the month of march. Heads into phase 1 by April 1st or so. Composite analogs for march neutral ENSO phase 8 is tasty. No denying that.

It all sounds fantastic in theory. Just hoping the ingredients come together for our latitude and we don’t watch PHL to BOS get buried all month.


.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WB 0Z Euro compared to 12Z at Day 7
DF16E0E3-4EBC-4446-BD50-68046B55ED92.thumb.png.df2f61f4c22a56d49842c03d9383f6b1.png
A1493F7E-A407-4738-B0AD-9EA976C4D216.thumb.png.c7388a297c037704d8d5e65d84836148.png

Rexblock FTW. If that trough ejects east off the west coast, we’re in the game. With the Greenland block looking as advertised, I don’t see how that energy doesn’t boot east. It’s already starting to move east as depicted above (on the 9th) and by the 12th, it should be in the Midwest.

Few kinks to iron out here, but boy… this is by far our best chance since December. Señorita niña sure picked the right time to keel over, finally allowing the MJO to both strengthen and head into phase 8. If it remains there for 3-4 weeks like the Euro is currently showing, I’d be pretty surprised if we dud.

It’d truly be the ultimate kick in the ole gonads to see suppression be the reason why we fail if this pattern indeed unfolds as the euro is depicting.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh.. that’s the OP. I call bullshit.

Curious what the ensemble has to say. We’re 10+ days out. As PSU said earlier, the difference between a storm off the coast and a cutter at this range is noise. Especially on an OP run 10+ days out. If the EPS looks like shit too, I’ll begin to worry.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Retrograding NAO block meteorologically cannot go S and hookup with a SER"...
Euro: hold my beer

63b598e0035fc39d59f3a0952259cf5b.jpg

The 00z GEPS squashed the living shit out of the SER and even attempts some ridging along the WC. I really want to see the 00z EPS for the 10th onward at 500mb. Not the OP. Zero shot we were going to see the OP show and hold a snowstorm setup 10+ days out. Now.. if the EPS took a big step in the wrong direction, that’d be worrisome


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, this hobby is truly fucking exhausting. I’m just going to focus on my weekend trip to Albany and enjoy and hopefully when I get back, we’re all rejoicing. I definitely can’t take 10-14 days more of this back and forth shit lol

I say we ban any screenshots of OP runs past 7-10 days - whether the outcome is good or bad. It’d probably save us all a ton of anxiety

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oy55294b186a2c0eed14cb31e43ed71d6f.jpg

Stop it with these LR clown maps Ji.

Funny to see that 31” inch total right over my parents house in Rockland county NY though just NW of NYC probably won’t turn out that way, but considering just how awful this winter has been for them, if that were to pan out, they’d be above 40” for the season including Monday’s storm.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS looks pretty much the same. don’t get all the hemming and hawing. i also think that any “increases” in the SE ridge are due to slightly slower timing. it still looks pretty much the same as we’ve seen it over the last few days
02CE5F29-3C72-42F0-B3F5-3A508CAB2E42.thumb.gif.81a7105f935cf6c1b42244eb83f20a09.gif

Whew. Glad it was just due to a bit of a delay in timing.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the GEFS h5 looks ok.  I mean it doesn't look like the h5 from the EPS but 2m temps are below normal and I didn't see a buried blue ball over AZ/CA.  I hope I am reading that right.  CAPE and Brooklyn will tell me if I am not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS has trended in the right direction for next weekend compared to yesterday at 6Z.

15351758-A3B6-4DA8-B0BA-7A6894164D7B.png

E659E43A-73DB-4DC7-860D-C7B9B744BB5D.png

Thank you.  I meant to include you in the people that could tell me I am a fucknut in my interpretation of the ensemble...there are plenty of others

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think the GEFS h5 looks ok.  I mean it doesn't look like the h5 from the EPS but 2m temps are below normal and I didn't see a buried blue ball over AZ/CA.  I hope I am reading that right.  CAPE and Brooklyn will tell me if I am not. 

It looks much better to me actually, esp after the 12th and onward.

I would not be surprised to see a cutter on the 7-10 time frame that reinforces the 50/50 and pushes the boundary south

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...