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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th:

  • highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait
  • anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US
  • highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL
  • signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block

I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. this composite applies for you guys, as well. the same pattern is needed for NYC south to see its biggest storms

I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last classic MA blizzard (unfortunately scraped you guys to the N). many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1677499200-1678276800-1678536000-40-1.thumb.gif.ca4201d0af97dff05094da46b67de409.gifezgif-4-872aaf5548.gif.2d8d5115556d65e16385a24317f745ec.gif

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As advertised on the EPS the March 4th fail storm at least helps jack up the Block. Textbook -NAO dipole with closed h5 contours.

1678190400-rJBYKDdqAfs.png

plus look at the lower heights under the Aleutians pressing the ridge into AK.  If that longwave configuration there can't overcome the SER were in big big big trouble because that is about as good as its going to ever get in a -PDO.  The pac isnt good but its mediocre there...and mediocre is about as good as we can hope for during a hostile PDO phase.  Meanwhile we have a damn perfect in every way block.  That HAS to work or its a really bad sign.   

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

plus look at the lower heights under the Aleutians pressing the ridge into AK.  If that longwave configuration there can't overcome the SER were in big big big trouble because that is about as good as its going to ever get in a -PDO.  The pac isnt good but its mediocre there...and mediocre is about as good as we can hope for during a hostile PDO phase.  Meanwhile we have a damn perfect in every way block.  That HAS to work or its a really bad sign.   

Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up. :yikes:

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