Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, CAPE said:

We cant afford to toss anything lol. March snow counts, and it is often a better month than December. People hate the quick meting I guess. We can do that efficiently in any month.

i only like snow when its on the models,  falling and like up to 3 hours after the storm is over lol...im not really into snowcover once the storm is more than a day old 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

This should be a long lasting, sustained event. Really jammed up atlantic will slow the precip progression down to only 150mph

I'm going to pretend that's a snow map and send to all my friends who will be coming.  Thanks!  :hurrbear:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temps don't look that hot and its during daylight hours, think the overnight "storm" in Feb. would end up being the winner for a good chunk of folks still. But point taken given how little we've seen

Temps are fine verbatim given how dry the air is. The bigger concern would be weak forcing- might be tough to get more than pixie dust to hit the ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently.  The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March.  There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle.  And several more times got close with 7-9" March months.  There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly.  

Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now.  Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle.  If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it.  We used to be able to.  March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region.  Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March.  March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.  

I pretty much toss December, though sometimes we can manage some small events there, and expect March to have some chances even if the snow melts away in a day or less. But some of that is probably recency bias because, other than 2009 and a decent event I think in 2013, I can't remember very many December snows, whereas March seems to have been littered with them over the past decade. We've seemingly had some pretty cold March's lately, but that might also be skewed by 13 and 14.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently.  The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March.  There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle.  And several more times got close with 7-9" March months.  There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly.  

Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now.  Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle.  If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it.  We used to be able to.  March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region.  Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March.  March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.  

Historically, 20% of large one-day snows (>6") in the Baltimore area have occurred in March or later (ok April 1st).  Here they are .

   19420329    22.0
    18920318    12.0
    19930313    11.3
    19090304    10.2
    19620306    10.0
    19600303    10.0
    19240401     9.8
    19640321     9.7
    19310317     8.3
    18920310     8.0
    19760309     7.8
    19070310     6.6
    20150305     6.2
    19110308     6.2
    19520301     6.0
    19410307     6.0
    19370314     6.0
    19340308     6.0
    19240311     6.0
    19230306     6.0
    18960311     6.0
 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukie and EC both say ‘eh, maybe’ to a 1-2” type event Saturday. Would be rather impressive to pull that off after hitting 75 on Thursday. Also tells you what our chances are of pulling that off. If it’s still there 00z Thursday night, then maybe we can take it seriously.


.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Historically, 20% of large one-day snows (>6") in the Baltimore area have occurred in March or later (ok April 1st).  Here they are .

   19420329    22.0
    18920318    12.0
    19930313    11.3
    19090304    10.2
    19620306    10.0
    19600303    10.0
    19240401     9.8
    19640321     9.7
    19310317     8.3
    18920310     8.0
    19760309     7.8
    19070310     6.6
    20150305     6.2
    19110308     6.2
    19520301     6.0
    19410307     6.0
    19370314     6.0
    19340308     6.0
    19240311     6.0
    19230306     6.0
    18960311     6.0
 

The fact only 1 of those dates is this century and only 2 in the last 45 years kind of highlights one of 2 possible things...either in the most recent +PDO phase March snow was less likely....(lets hope its that) and now that we are in a -PDO we will resume March snow being a staple....OR...its that thing we aren't supposed to talk about.  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Ukie and EC both say ‘eh, maybe’ to a 1-2” type event Saturday. Would be rather impressive to pull that off after hitting 75 on Thursday. Also tells you what our chances are of pulling that off. If it’s still there 00z Thursday night, then maybe we can take it seriously.


.

were not getting 1-2 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The fact only 1 of those dates is this century and only 2 in the last 45 years kind of highlights one of 2 possible things...either in the most recent +PDO phase March snow was less likely....(lets hope its that) and now that we are in a -PDO we will resume March snow being a staple....OR...its that thing we aren't supposed to talk about.  

when is the -PDO phase over? Feels like we are on year 29 of it

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...