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February 21-23 Major Winter Storm


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Are you really complaining about 18in? Lol. I haven't even got winter storm warning criteria this winter. Will gladly trade you. I would do anything to experience a storm like what Minneapolis is about to get. Truly incredible and rare event. 

You should go out east for the real stuff. Obviously not this winter but traveling to Boston in Feb 2015 was epic 

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28 minutes ago, mimillman said:

You should go out east for the real stuff. Obviously not this winter but traveling to Boston in Feb 2015 was epic 

That's actually on my bucket list to do. Experience a powerhouse Nor'easter. Also need to get in one of those historic lake effect bands. Just so rare to get double digit snows here anymore. Use to not be. 

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17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wagons north. Lol

Should be interesting to see what happens here. 

Love that the front can indeed make it north of the MI/IN/OH and IL/WI border in the middle of winter, but never come spring… Stays along I-80 Every. Single. Time. Keeping the weather trash here and 70° and sunny 50 miles south.

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3 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:


Short and medium range models are showing the same thing the long range have been showing for a week. Not sure what the problem is here.


.

For around here it's night and day between the short range vs the others. Bad ice storm vs plain rain. I am hoping for the rain but I know better then to trust those models showing the rain. Alot of tall trees and power lines behind my house so yeah I'll pass on the ice. Ofcourse ma nature is gonna what it likes. 

 

Ofcourse I have more personal reason for not wanting the ice either which has to do with Thursday night plans. :ph34r:

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40 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Should be interesting to see what happens here. 

Love that the front can indeed make it north of the MI/IN/OH and IL/WI border in the middle of winter, but never come spring… Stays along I-80 Every. Single. Time. Keeping the weather trash here and 70° and sunny 50 miles south.

Right! So frustrating! Would love the opposite! 

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Right! So frustrating! Would love the opposite! 

 

Really has been a few crappy years huh? Ofcourse I didn't notice as I used to as I have been too busy doing other stuff. Ofcourse the mid/late 2000s and 2010s kinda spoiled us with them 80, 90, 100+ winters here. This area went 15 or so years without a winter below 60 inches.

Fyi. Back in the 1930-60 period the normal here was around 40 with only two going above the 60 mark and a slew of 18-30. For the time being it's now closer to 70 thanks to the 2000s and 2010s. 97-98 was the last time this area failed to make 40 or even 30.. 

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24 minutes ago, Natester said:

0z UKMET another tick north.  Looking unlikely that we will get ice here.  That's perfectly fine with me since I hate ice.

 

Any little tick north helps here. Just not enough yet but getting close. 

Ofcourse I don't follow this model as often so not sure how reliable it is in these situations? 

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If nothing goes wrong, Minneapolis could receive more snow in this storm than anybody not in a lake effect zone south of ~42N has gotten all winter.

Usually this type of thing happens at least once a year in the Dakotas. Nice to see Minnesota getting it for once. Also Nebraska did have a snowstorm with more than 30 inches last month.

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00z Euro is much wetter with precip amounts near/north of the initial sfc low track.  That heaviest band is pretty much south of the ice area, though still have more than respectable qpf farther north.
The Euro was showing lingering snow cover in the IL/WI state line area but 00z run backed off and is more realistic finally. So perhaps a reason to put some stock in 2m temp depiction, unlike the GFS phantom snow cover nonsense. Interestingly, the lighter precip rates north plus gusty winds Wednesday evening, if temps are cold enough, would support an uptick in accretion rates.

The position of the heavy rain swath remains uncertain, as well as top end magnitude. 6-hour flash flood guidance is around 2", so may need close to or above 2" amounts to have more than minor flooding/ponding.


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Anticipating a nice cold rain, but what's the source of that purple blob in far NE IL? 
Inexplicably bad model parameterization. Hoping our Science and Operations Officer (SOO) emails the developers about this issue since its now been multiple runs in a row of generating phantom snow depth in a non snow supportive air mass.


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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The Euro was showing lingering snow cover in the IL/WI state line area but 00z run backed off and is more realistic finally. So perhaps a reason to put some stock in 2m temp depiction, unlike the GFS phantom snow cover nonsense. Interestingly, the lighter precip rates north plus gusty winds Wednesday evening, if temps are cold enough, would support an uptick in accretion rates.

The position of the heavy rain swath remains uncertain, as well as top end magnitude. 6-hour flash flood guidance is around 2", so may need close to or above 2" amounts to have more than minor flooding/ponding.

 

Do you know if FRAM accounts for max temp aloft (or max wet bulb temp aloft)?  I was looking at the pdf that you had linked and I didn't see anything about that.  It mentioned wet bulb temps but I assumed it was talking about sfc wet bulb temps.

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