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2/16/23 Winter Storm


madwx
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44 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

As we get this close should be put more focus on the models like the HRRR and others that are better in this close timeframe then the longer range models ? Just asking due to my ignorance.  thanks 

The short-term models like the HRRR should improve within 24 hours, but so should all models.  I just watch for trends on all of them.

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Full run

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

I obviously think the lake effect depiction into northwest Indiana is overdone, and it's been something that the HRRR has struggled with more often than not.  But in an overall sense, the warm stretch that we've been in will help to give some boost to the lake effect compared to what it would otherwise be with this same airmass.  This airmass with more typical lake temps would have delta T values peaking around 16-17C, but it will be more like 19-20C instead.

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Have no idea how this verifies. But I'm taking the current forecast and advisory package as a"win" from last Saturday in this winter of benign suckage. Only wish my call for 60 on Wednesday and Snow for Thursday was still on  the table. I'll be chugging up to beer town before the sun rises. Found a special place near a brown river with waving palms to soothe the soul. I like how the heavy wet snow  weighs than snaps its fronds. 

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Seems like a good bet. I'd imagine LOT will expand all the headlines south by a county or two if trends hold.
I'm here this evening - not sure if we'll be able to make any changes this shift, but wouldn't be surprised if there's an expansion by the midnight shift.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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from Milwaukee using the "B" word

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches, highest amounts near the lake. Winds gusting as high as
  35 to 40 mph with blowing and drifting snow. Near blizzard
  conditions in the afternoon and early evening.

* WHERE...Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties.
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The most recent guidance brings a pronounced dry slot centered around 500 mb pretty far north. If you're in the Chicago area and were excited by the 18z NAM kuchera algorithm output, it's definitely overdone based off what's shown on the forecast soundings.

There's still uncertainty with how much of the warm conveyor belt (warm advection) precip gets up into northern IL tomorrow morning, with the NCEP guidance more bullish on that note. After that, the models are in good agreement in loss of cloud ice due to the dry slot and this possibly even causing ptype issues up near the WI border (I'm leaning toward there being just enough saturation to stay as a poor quality snow up there).

For much of the Chicago metro and points south, some of the guidance brings the warm nose in, and some is colder, but it's kind of immaterial with the cloud temps around -6C. I'd think we'd still have sleet with the low level wedging and steep lapse rates possibly yielding a convective effect driven flip to sleet at times. However, if the WCB precip misses us, concerned that most of the precip tomorrow is a liquid and some sleet mix, with rain/drizzle vs freezing rain/FZDZ dependent upon surface temps.

Eventually, the cloud temps cool off to the -10 to -13C range late afternoon and onward, which would shift ptype to mainly low quality snow through Thursday evening. Lake enhancement prospects also seem likely to be affected by the dry air issues aloft.

The snow amounts, even in the WSW within LOT CWA, might be overdone due to the mid-level dry air issues. Roads are probably still gonna be shitty for the Thursday PM commute though.



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Hey, guys. Busting into this thread from the Southeast because I’m currently in Chicago for a conference. Haven’t seen a single flake all winter IMBY in Hickory, NC. Hoping to see some fall from the sky tomorrow here at the McCormick Center before my scheduled flight leaves ORD in the late afternoon.

HRRR and NAM look robust, but @RCNYILWX has me tempering expectations based on the possible dry slot. Of course, I hope my flight actually gets off the ground too…

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