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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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37 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

18z GFS looks slightly northwest of 12z. 

Still, just barely, keeping hope of something alive for my backyard on the border between this forum and the Mid-Atlantic forum. 

 

A good run increased the amounts for the foothills a good bit. And even put some totals down further east towards the Piedmont. 

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The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs.

At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos.

This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass.


638b2899e8664e957d2bc39a0761d0a7.jpg


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34 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

The cutoff ULL at 500 is over northeastern GA and western SC/NC at 66 hrs.

At these leads, it is time to follow the ops for synoptics and precip and the NAMs for thermals/precip type. Ensembles have limited usefulness less than 3 days out and almost always start caving to higher resolution ops and mesos.

This storm looks great for the places I mentioned above and for the mountains and hopefully foothills. We would want to see the ULL be even stronger for the lowlands to cash in significantly with this warm antecedent air mass.


638b2899e8664e957d2bc39a0761d0a7.jpg


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How much more of an adjustment would you want to see for the Foothills to cash in? Only thing that worry's me is the temps.

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10 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure.


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Yeah, especially since I feel we've seen stronger ULLs get tugged further north/inland (and vice versa). Also the potential is limited because the western Piedmont and northern foothills will likely sit in the dry slot for a while

 

 

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19 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


A stronger low with a slightly more southerly placement than shown two posts above. Going to be a tight fine line this way for sure.


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Agreed, but usually stronger lows like to climb in latitude as they amplify, so it is tough to get both adjustments unfortunately.  Not saying it can’t happen, though. Fingers crossed.  

You all are in a much better spot than I am for this one. I about 2 or 3 counties north of your forum in Augusta County, VA at 1550 ft. Hoping for a Super Bowl miracle and then a day off from school for my kids and work since my wife and I both teach. And sledding for the first time this season! Lol

But you all have a much better ULL pass going for you which is able to pull down cold air from the heavens above since there is no cold air in the eastern US or SE Canada to pull from due to the persistent SER this winter. I hope you all get obliterated with snow and someone jacks with 2 feet!

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