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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away.:scooter:

Yep "snow islands"

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23 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away.:scooter:

Sounds like what happens in the summer when some areas get drenched and a few miles away its sunny.

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If the antecedent airmass around this storm was even close to what you’d expect for the time of year the H5 setup on GEFS is just about textbook for an area-wide major snow. Too bad there just isn’t any cold air available north of the system or this thing could’ve gone bonkers with the qpf forecast 

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 12z EPS upticked the snowfall for the middle of VA and NC, points west. SW VA with 6" snowfall means emoji102.png

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Pretty much in line with the OP. Only time I pay any attention to ensembles is to see if they have agreement or not, otherwise the details aren't so important. Especially with the complexity of the ULL, banding etc., Not being handed so well at the lower resolutions 

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s a Floyd VA to Blacksburg and NRV mauling. 
 

Also you know something’s up when @Discis lurking.. :drunk:

Here and watching. Our best chance at snow all winter. ULLs can do some crazy stuff, so this will be a wild ride the next few days.

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23 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

Sounds like what happens in the summer when some areas get drenched and a few miles away it’s sunny.

Pretty much the exact same convective nature. There’s a reason they call upper level lows a “forecasters woe.” Some will be happy, most will be pissed.

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31 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The probability of 1" or greater improved on both the GEFS and EPS (12Z) as compared to previous runs...for most of central NC.

Still low, but good trends.

1" of snow (fall) that will add up to precisely zero on the ground.  We had a similar event here in the triad a few years ago but the date escapes me.  Snowed hard all afternoon and got nothing but some white mulch.  

East of 52 and south of 40 is in hail mary land.  The ball is long enough, high enough but is likely going to be batted down at the last second.  

I'm putting down the pre-emergent tomorrow.  Might as well be purposeful.

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3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

1" of snow (fall) that will add up to precisely zero on the ground.  We had a similar event here in the triad a few years ago but the date escapes me.  Snowed hard all afternoon and got nothing but some white mulch.  

East of 52 and south of 40 is in hail mary land.  The ball is long enough, high enough but is likely going to be batted down at the last second.  

I'm putting down the pre-emergent tomorrow.  Might as well be purposeful.

Correct.  I looked at snowfall, not snow depth.

But the way this season has been, I'd love to see a snow fall, even if it doesn't stick!

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9 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

March 2009.. I had 8-10" in my forecast down in Lexington, SC. And we got a dry slot and 0". Not even a dusting.

Here's hoping the whole board gets something white on the ground!

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That one stung. I lived in Irmo at the time. First time I was old enough to do any kind of tracking and the disappointment when I woke up was immeasurable. The day off from school was nice though

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18z GFS is much further south and a hair slower. If you live from Augusta to greenwood to Charlotte, 18z is about as good as you can ask for
I think that models are going to start converging, SC scored to avoid a shoutout.

One thing to notw is that this weekend is the 50th anniversary for the Blizzard of 73.

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EXACTLY CLT metro atleast on paper was the winner there so track looks fine the rest will take care of itself as Tiger said 
Here is the thing, the SE as a whole outside the mountains has been shut out, this is possibly the last chance to score at bare minimum mood flakes or some light ZR

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