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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Let’s hope it’s just a winter and not an era…we won’t know that for a while…but usually we luck into something…we haven’t even had a CAD event.  

That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. 

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49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. 

We just have a great summer..starting this week apparently…and regroup in November.  My trees are seriously starting to bud..been here 25 years…never seen that in Feb ever 

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Captain Obvious here; 

Well the retrograding block and any stratospheric help isn't supposed to occur until early March anyway.   I'm not out until Brooklyn Wx quits showing those wonderful plots (better than snow maps - and I love those!) 

Given operational models have little if any skill beyond 7 to 7 1/2 days, it is not surprising that a day 9 mirage disappeared.   The shock there was that both the GFS and ECMWF both showed it briefly. 

Besides my trusty weather app gives me a 40% chance of snow this upcoming Saturday with a high of 38. 

 

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For the weekend- there is some weak vorticity moving along the boundary between the SE ridge and the colder air pressing in from the north. There will be a transient cold high to our north, so the possibility is there for at least some frozen. Biggest question is will there be enough forcing, and where. Right now it doesn't look like a big deal but there could be a little snow/mix in parts of our region.

0z GEFS members-

1677348000-ZJLEoRhzcYM.png

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For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low.

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15 hours ago, Terpeast said:

That’s the most surprising thing about this winter, imo. I fully expected a predominant cutter track but did not expect cold air to instantly vanish as soon as a wave creeped east of the rockies. Every single time. 

Here is your CAD event, its just 15 degrees warmer than needed!

image.thumb.png.dc4029386dbe7269f44209bf3f6c2788.png

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Even in a colder era, there were a few ratters like this one. It’s just happening more frequently now.  

Yea, I think the ratter part is also due to the jet stream being too far north and west as well. In colder years, we might still be battling the R/S line. That’ll be an interesting trend to watch the next few winters. In other news…speaking of jet stream, looks like a jet streak moving through tomorrow which could translate gusty winds to the surface (per LWX). This week’s weather definitely has late March vibes.
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Come on.. look at this pattern when/if the warm air breaks down. (as long as the epo is +, it's going to be rain. There is something called "snapping", where as our warm days busted warmer, conditions over Alaska trended colder in the upper atmosphere. After so much of that you sometimes get 5-10 days of -EPO or something. ) There is also that +EPO's last 7-13 days, and this one is going Feb 24-March 5 (10 days).

gfs_namer_180_sim_radar_comp.thumb.gif.fa06d08a77418009162f0d0370c1fc04.gif

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