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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya wanna get rid of me that badly, smh (despite me cutting my posts down since last month). Hey uh...don't wanna see me post? How about not @ing me just to randomly insult!

P.S. On the off-chance this was NOT an insult...ya know, I don't know if I ever fully "close up shop" on here...because now I'll be following the ENSO. Definitely much less involvement overall given that takes weeks and months...but I'll still be around (I poke my nose in severe occasionally)

Sorry man…I def didn’t intend for it to land as insult. More so was admiring your dedication and perseverance and suspected you would be last one standing. Just wanted to ensure you closed the door,  so we don’t let the ac out. It’s getting hot out here man

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58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


(Un?)fortunately the EPS looks viable to me for wintery precip past Day 9 or so. March is the new February

 

36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, blocking builds in later on, likely due to the SSW, and the pattern becomes good for overrunning with the persistent 50/50 showing up

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1676548800-1677412800-1677844800-20-1.thumb.gif.f735ec6ba9c812a5c957fe3e893da01b.gif

Yeah, it has worked out well for us in the LR so far

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24 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol weve gone from chasing 10 days away storms, to being thankful for 80s on long range outputs

the cycle is complete. winter is over. congrats folks, we mostly died but dragged our lame asses to the finish line

Pretty much.  February will go by with nothing most likely.  Sun angle, DST...let's just get off this ride already.

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24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro pumping a 597dm ridge in the Gulf in...checks notes...February.

Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. 

Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr.

T2EM1kI5cy.png.c54e9abdb4af0e6dc15cf68da70f7549.png

minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." 

minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998."

 7qeY4Uea5D.png.c4ea6b551413eb9ef020aa46562ae44e.png

That's in this era since 2013..

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29 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not that I want California to burn down, but I have appreciated the ridge west/trough east summers lately.  I’m not looking forward to the next time we have a summer 2010-2012 pattern.

Was just looking at this earlier today. DCA has had one 100+ degree day in the past 9 summers. The longest "cool" stretch like that since the late 60s-early 70s. Only the second such stretch.

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15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it

I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time

Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. 
 

Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. 

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I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER.  Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very true but I don’t think it’s foolish to realize that day 10-15 looks mean nothing and we should wait until it’s inside day 7 before getting excited that the persistence is ending. Especially when those day 10 looks continue to be versions of the same tease that mutates in the same way into the same crap. 
 

Simply relying on persistence would be bad science but so would crying wolf 50 times a winter at every half decent day 10-15 look. 

I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result

I think it's worth mentioning possible changes

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I won’t get excited by any day 10+ look that still has 3 features, a western trough, Aleutian and a SER.  Because we’re stuck in a loop where all 3 continue to be under represented and the result is as we move closer the SER pumps more and more until those good looks are just more of the same. These good looks that rely on a bunch of things overcoming those 3 problems are just a tease. 

Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need.

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