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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread


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18 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Statements that “this is how it goes in a Nina” are mostly incorrect.  Precipitation has been more like a Nino , strong lows into the lakes with copious moisture is more like a Nino .  The temperature profile has matched Nina

Weather forecasting is like medical practitioners-practice to try and get it done better. The Enso used to be very reliable and many other theories have been circulated but SSW and MJO and the Ever Increasing alphabet indexes are like medicine-in a state of development and practice.  They are too often presented as assured when really it’s unproven yet May in time become proven.

As painfully as many react to this-models do Not predict a weather outcome; they give examples of possibilities.  It’s a good thing my doctor does not say “try this one or try that one” which is what models project with each 6 hour run. 
 

I dont know but some of you very adept do know what mechanism forces cold air down thru  Canada and over western PA and NY.  That’s the source for snow in DC area. Plunging cold air into central USA and then rolling eastward just does not work, phase jobs don’t work, Miller As are our money .

 

 

You're right that this is not acting like a canonical nina.  @Terpeast noted if you look at the h5 analogs its actually behaving most like a neutral following a nina, which makes sense as the nina fades perhaps we are already into the phase where the atmosphere is behaving like a neutral.  Problem is most don't realize, for whatever reason, that a enso neutral following a nina has been even worse for snow here than a nina.  

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Kinda like us watching the long range ensembles every time they’ve looked good this year.

The only time I actually thought the pattern looked good was back in early December, and we did get what, on its face from a 30,000 ft view was a good pattern in mid December.  This was actually the one time this year we had a longwave pattern that legit looked good.

December2022.gif.ca19fa0f94aaa6ee28d5199de3736d6b.gif

But it failed because that mean hid within it the fact that while on the whole the SER was suppressed and heights were lower in the east, in reality the SER was still able to thwart our chances because it resisted just enough each time a wave came along allowing each system during that period to cut well to our west.  But that look above is a carbon copy of our "how to snow in a -PDO" analogs.  

But it failed, and I think some decided since that didn't work we are better off trying a different pattern.  Problem is just because a really good pattern totally failed doesn't make a bad pattern more likely to work.  It's actually simply depressing that we wasted a legit really good pattern.  

I don't think many actually think we've ever had a high probability of snow at anytime since that mid Dec pattern fail.  I think some are just trying to be positive and keep hope alive.  That's fine...but me personally, I would rather just accept how awful it is and face it head on and not tease myself with getting my hopes up over what are extremely long shot threats that are extremely likely to fail. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You're right that this is not acting like a canonical nina.  @Terpeast noted if you look at the h5 analogs its actually behaving most like a neutral following a nina, which makes sense as the nina fades perhaps we are already into the phase where the atmosphere is behaving like a neutral.  Problem is most don't realize, for whatever reason, that a enso neutral following a nina has been even worse for snow here than a nina.  

I remember HM pointing this out years ago when he frequented the weather boards.  

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1 hour ago, MDstorm said:

I remember HM pointing this out years ago when he frequented the weather boards.  

I think the misconception that a dying nina is a good thing comes from 2 factors.  Enso neutral used to be a snowier enso state a LONG time ago...it hasn't been in over 30 years abut sometimes once a narrative is established it can take a long time to change.  The other issue is simple fallacy where people are looking for any hope and using the faulty logic of "nina=bad so anything else =good" when in actuality its "nina = bad, neutral = worse".  

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I don’t even hate Niñas, obviously we’ve had some very snowy Niña years and whether they’re the anomaly or not, it’s still possible to have a good season in a Niña. Following everything you’ve been saying PSU I agree that neutral seems to be the least effective ENSO state at the moment. 

I think a big negative has been the persistence of the SER through every pattern at one point or another, and I suppose it’ll be very informative to see if it continues to pop up even when we’re in a good Niño. If it does, perhaps that’s the bigger issue than just ‘Niña bad.’

The SER didn’t show on the Dec mean but I believe it still popped at the wrong times to help keep us in warm sector of every wave. But I also heard some suggesting part of that was the orientation of the PNA ridge. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like about 2 to 6 area wide according to my shitty maps.

Glass half full version: would be a nice little event, especially given this winter 

Glass half empty:  why is a track off the coast with a perfect H5 pass in the snowiest period of our climo resulting in a mix event where DC loses half the precip to rain and is in the upper 30's until the low passes by and we get under the CCB.  We lose pretty much all the WAA precip to rain.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait how the lower eastern shore get that in that scenario? Oh clown maps...lol

Analyzing a 200 hour prog is silly but that's because initially its way too warm, anyone not in the higher elevations loses pretty much all the initial WAA precip to the northeast of the approaching storm to rain.  Then as the coastal low passes by and the coastal plain gets into the CCB deform it finally cools...but that wrap around precip is notoriously finicky and banded and so in this case you get that weird presentation.  Typically in this setup where the WAA precip was snow there would have been a more uniform snowfall presentation with some "bonus" zones within where the CCB banding sets up...but in this case that banding is almost the whole show because the more consistent WAA precip was rain.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Glass half full version: would be a nice little event, especially given this winter 

Glass half empty:  why is a track off the coast with a perfect H5 pass in the snowiest period of our climo resulting in a mix event where DC loses half the precip to rain and is in the upper 30's until the low passes by and we get under the CCB.  We lose pretty much all the WAA precip to rain.  

 

Our friend the SER? Warm waters?...I feel like we keep asking this question but don't really have an answer yet.

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