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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Snow/Sleet/Misery Obs & Disco


NorthArlington101
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023
 
VAZ025-026-029-503-504-508-010645-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.230201T0500Z-230201T1400Z/
Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
534 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023
 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
 
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.
 
* WHERE...Augusta, Highland, Page, and Rockingham Counties and the
  central Virginia Blue Ridge.
 
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday.
 
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The greatest chance for snow and ice
  accumulations will be in the higher elevations.
 
 
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7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

what's w/ the HRRR being so south compared to most guidance? just HRRR-the-night-before shenanigans?

No idea but I remember in March 2018 there was an event where northern MD was supposed to get 4-8” the next morning. All 12z and 18z guidance had it.   Then around 20z the hrrr started going to crap. Someone said “don’t worry the euro isn’t going to be that wrong 24 hours out, I’ll die on that hill”.  Most were ignoring the hrrr

 

Then the 0z NAM came out and shifted everything 100 miles east also. The rest of the 0z followed suit. HRRR sniffed it out between runs. 
 

My take is no one hrrr run means much.  But it’s troubling if over 3+ consecutive runs it starts trending the wrong way inside 24 hours.  
 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

No idea but I remember in March 2018 there was an event where northern MD was supposed to get 4-8” the next morning. All 12z and 18z guidance had it.   Then around 20z the hrrr started going to crap. Someone said “don’t worry the euro isn’t going to be that wrong 24 hours out, I’ll die on that hill”.  Most were ignoring the hrrr

 

Then the 0z NAM came out and shifted everything 100 miles east also. The rest of the 0z followed suit. HRRR sniffed it out between runs. 
 

My take is no one hrrr run means much.  But it’s troubling if over 3+ consecutive runs it starts trending the wrong way inside 24 hours.  
 

hm, we're probably fine then. 20z and 22z i think were both good runs

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4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

hm, we're probably fine then. 20z and 22z i think were both good runs

I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care!  Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. 

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Keep in mind though we’re talking about placing fairly minor banding accurately. If this was a larger system we wouldn’t expect a meso banding feature like this to be accurately depicted.  It shouldn’t be shocking if a .5-1” band set up anywhere because we’re talking less than a tenth inch of qpf to make that difference here. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care!  Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. 

Trending the wrong way for who?  

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I was curious. I’ve not been watching. Frankly a 1” event doesn’t excite me much but I wish luck to all those who do care!  Been doing things with the kids. But just pulled up the last 5 hrrr runs. They’re clearly trending the wrong way. 

I don’t know about trending the wrong way, it’s just never liked this one. Minus that fifth run you mentioned it’s always showed the best stuff south and it’s been basically a non-event. I actually liked the 23z better since it at least has a semi-organized band of .5” somewhere, even if somewhere is SW of DC.
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


I don’t know about trending the wrong way, it’s just never liked this one. Minus that fifth run you mentioned it’s always showed the best stuff south and it’s been basically a non-event. I actually liked the 23z better since it at least has a semi-organized band of .5” somewhere.

We’re talking such a minor feature here it’s likely for some guidance to be missing something. No way to know which though. 

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