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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


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Mesoscale Discussion 0130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0939 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

   Areas affected...Northern into central PA...central NY...VT...and
   western NH

   Concerning...Snow Squall 

   Valid 030339Z - 030745Z

   SUMMARY...Snow squalls could continue spreading east-southeastward
   across parts of the Northeast during the next few hours. Rapid
   visibility reductions in bursts of heavy snow are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-organized snow
   squall moving east-southeastward at around 30-40 kt across parts of
   central NY. This band is generally focused along the leading edge of
   a southeastward-advancing arctic cold front, which is expected to
   continue overspreading parts of the Northeast during the next few
   hours. Regional VWP data depicts 50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in
   the lowest 3 km, which combined with strong/focused forcing for
   ascent and pockets of conditionally unstable boundary-layer
   conditions preceding the snow squall, should support its maintenance
   with eastward extent. The primary limiting factor continues to be
   somewhat dry low-level conditions, though it appears that the
   aforementioned factors are generally compensating for this.
   Therefore, the potential for rapid visibility reductions in bursts
   of heavy snow should continue spreading east-southeastward across
   the Northeast during the next few hours before a gradual decrease in
   intensity/organization.
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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You may get a quick one. Looks like they fade as they head SE. A little too dry. 
 

If flow was more SW off the ocean we’d probably have a derecho.

 

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if we could have turned the flow (like 925-850) more like 230-250, we could’ve had some really intense stuff because LL moisture is the main limiting factor in these. The other WINDEX checklist items are present. 

Man that's a great squall line. Too bad it's going to dry out

 

 

Regional VWP data depicts 50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in
   the lowest 3 km, which combined with strong/focused forcing for
   ascent and pockets of conditionally unstable boundary-layer
   conditions preceding the snow squall, should support its maintenance
   with eastward extent. The primary limiting factor continues to be
   somewhat dry low-level conditions, though it appears that the
   aforementioned factors are generally compensating for this.
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Obs look great.

Local MVL ASOS with the M1/4 visibility.  Gusted near 40mph too.

METAR KMVL 030510Z AUTO 33015G21KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M07/M09 A2961

METAR KMVL 030505Z AUTO 33014KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV010 M07/M09 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 31027/0502 WSHFT 0451 P0000 T10671089

METAR KMVL 030500Z AUTO 32021KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV013 M06/M08 A2962

KMVL 030458Z AUTO 32022G34KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV014 M06/M08 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 32034/0457 

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Man that's a great squall line. Too bad it's going to dry out
 
 
Regional VWP data depicts 50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in  the lowest 3 km, which combined with strong/focused forcing for  ascent and pockets of conditionally unstable boundary-layer  conditions preceding the snow squall, should support its maintenance  with eastward extent. The primary limiting factor continues to be  somewhat dry low-level conditions, though it appears that the  aforementioned factors are generally compensating for this.

Yup. Fizzled big time out this way. Looked great west of Albany. Now? Naso much...

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Decided to run today which is usually a day off instead of tomorrow. Was fairly windy but not what I was expecting. Maybe that comes after sunrise? Temp fell from 27 to 23 in the time I was out 

Not sure the front has even crossed you yet. Should be shortly though. There was a wind shift with the snow showers, but the real temp drop didn't start until the second boundary passed.

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44 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not sure the front has even crossed you yet. Should be shortly though. There was a wind shift with the snow showers, but the real temp drop didn't start until the second boundary passed.


Yeah, looks a little slower here. PWS in NW CT down in the teens now, however. 

BFD1EF9F-CE2C-455E-8B1E-5471B152CF22.gif.e6da63d7fdf33e6716be35803f30fb59.gif

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