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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Ice Possibilities


Holston_River_Rambler
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Back to the RGEM though, it continues to insist that the 3rd wave Thursday is still looking rough wrt ice:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611e617ea2772f199ffe4

 

6z RGEM for the entire event:

SUJagUY.png

and that is the FRAM product that takes into account melting. 

 

Latest NWS blend finally made a jump toward the more SE solutions (run over run trend for the past 9 runs)

giphy.gif?cid=790b761189a14ead795a89db0b

 

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 Never seen anything like this,  Pea size sleet in the middle of a thunderstorm.  CHECK IT OUT!  I hope it is alright to post here because it does have to do with this system and it is not like there is a lot going on in the forum at the moment.  Thundersleet is trending on Twitter so if you have an account, there is some very interesting videos there now.

 

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1 hour ago, snowmaker said:

Man this place is more dead than when we have boring weather. LOL

Well, a guess a large group of posters in the east aren't too thrilled with a week of cold rain. To be fair, it is a gross, nasty, 40 degree rain. Just a bleak affair here, the grass is practically mud. There are still a few here posting though! 

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Looks like 70% of the state of Texas is now under a winter storm warning, south-western Arkansas also in on that warning upgrade. Should be a fun day weather wise across the nation to say the least.  I Picked up some icing with last nights system here in bolivar.  Maybe .10 of an inch max so far, nice glaze of ice on all the trees and cars.  round 2 tonight looks like it’s going to pack more of a punch though.  Supposed to start here around 4pm

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Got to 33 here in Smyrna. This is more of a nuisance event. Thankfully.  After all the damage to shrubs from the Christmas cold. I do not won’t any part of trees being damaged by ice. Whatever happens is short lived & by this weekend is long gone. Going to be very nice temp wise coming up. I expect to be mowing my yard in a couple weeks. Buttercups will be blooming by mid February is my guess. They already are coming up. If we had not had that Christmas cold this would be a very uneventful winter so far. 

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4 hours ago, snowmaker said:

Man this place is more dead than when we have boring weather. LOL

Normally, us folks in the east refrain from wholesale rants about winter events to our west(i.e "it missed us" posts).  I think that is one of the great things about our forums.  It doesn't descend into chaos.  So, we just sit quietly.  We all know that middle and west TN folks had to endure our shouts for joy during the many winters prior to these three Nina events.  So, out of tradition, we either chime in w/ info about the event or just watch.  And trust me, we can go a week in here w/out a single post during boring weather!   LOL.  

Also, I don't see any huge changes to modeling.  I could post some ice and sleet maps, but they generally look the same.  Tonight will tell the story one way or the other.   So, really just hoping to see some reports from the gang in middle and west TN once the sun sets and precip moves in.

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Even MBY is now getting a mention for some freezing precip tonight and tomorrow.  Man, it is straight nasty out there right now.

From MRX and pay special attention to that big middle paragraph if you live in E TN: 

National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

Key Message:

Light wintry precipitation, especially in the form of freezing rain,
is becoming more likely for the northern Plateau and portions of
southwest Virginia. Light ice accumulation expected in these areas.

Discussion:

Currently the gloomy weather is continuing across the area, even
though most of the precipitation has diminished or moved east of the
Appalachian Mountains. We`ll have a break in precipitation this
afternoon before more isentropic rain begins to move in from the
west/southwest this evening.

With this next round of precipitation coming overnight the
temperatures will drop to near or below freezing along the
Cumberland Plateau, and parts of NE Tennessee, and SW Virginia.
Atmospheric soundings continue to show a moderate warm nose
overnight leading to somewhat favorable conditions for light
freezing rain in parts of the area. Have remained close to
NBM/WPC/HRRR/HREF forecasts with regards to total ice accumulations.
Most favorable areas for ice to accumulate will be in the northern
Cumberland Plateau over into SW Virginia where the shallow layer of
cold air will penetrate the most. Some models and guidance have the
cold air making into the eastern TN valley, but local research and
historical trends indicate that this shallow layer or near surface
cold air really struggles to make it up and over the plateau and
local mountains/ridgetops. Forecast soundings seem to indicate this
shallow layer of sub-freezing air stops less than 2,000 above the
valley surface. Traditionally we need sub freezing temperatures in
place already to see decent freezing rain accumulations on the
ground. With temperatures currently in the 50/40`s this seems
unlikely at this time, but can`t rule out some very light isolated
icing on trees and other elevated surfaces in the northern Valley.
With that being said, places along and west of the plateau have a
much better chance to see accumulations, but based on QPF amounts it
it looks likely that amounts hopefully remain less than 0.10" with
isolated higher amounts.

With that being said, will go with a Winter Weather Advisory for
several counties on the Plateau, up into SW Virginia where there is
the highest chance to see ice on the ground.
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I saw that forecast discussion Carver and almost commented on it. Yeah, it appears the cold is pressing pretty well. It may get to the valley especially the further NW you are, but if anything it should just make the trees glisten around here, which is still a win in this setup. Meanwhile, I hope everyone in W TN and extreme NW MS gets in safely tonight! It is going downhill fast there I hear. A buddy of mine lives in Southaven and he said it’s pouring sleet there right now. 

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The 12k NAM is picking up on frozen precip on Thursday.  It has 3-4" of snow in TRI for that timeframe.  And that has been on that model for several runs.  I just never went to the middle of the run.  Sorry to the middle and west folks for posting meager amounts here.  I won't hijack the thread w/ E TN stuff.  If it gets more realistic, I will just build another thread.  This is Thursday night. 

Screen_Shot_2023-01-31_at_4.00.00_PM.png

Incoming RGEM has frozen precip as well...

Screen_Shot_2023-01-31_at_4.03.33_PM.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Thanks I missed that. I have wondered all along if that might be possible at the end. The airmass coming down is pretty potent and I may try to squeeze out one last hurrah. I guess we’ll see 

I noticed how cold it was in Memphis...much colder than modeled for today.  They aren't even sniffing 32F during the middle of the day there.  So, that tells me that air mass is very cold and very low to the ground likely.  I also noticed WWAs were extended to the very eastern edge of the Plateau and just to my north.  So, I decided to read the afternoon discos...and low and behold, modeling has trended much colder for the northern valley.  The big show is stilll west and middle TN.  What is coming in right now is moderate to heavy ZR there.  I hope for their sake it is sleet.   For our region, we are the very last wave regarding the snow.  Though, tonight it could flirt light wintry precip(nuisance stuff here).  That last wave is pressing east and south with each passing run.  

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