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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Ice Possibilities


Holston_River_Rambler
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38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z modeling has decently upped the ZR totals for middle and west TN.  The 12z RGEM now has the event lasting into Friday.  The 3k NAM has some very light amounts creeping into NE TN and SW VA on this run.  So message at 12z so far....increasing totals for the 72 hour time frame.

Dont think that Nashville NWS is bending though, still have the WWA out for Middle TN should be pushing close to ice storm warning here as well 

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8 minutes ago, footballknox said:

What prevents the cold air from coming in East TN? 

High pressure over the SE coast. We had the same thing happen in 2021 when Memphis and Nashville got hammered with 2 weeks of subfreezing temps and snow/ice. It was 66 in Chattanooga during parts of that event and 14 in Memphis. This isn't quite that extreme, but there is basically zero chance of any icing in the eastern TN valley from this.

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Just now, *Flash* said:

As a Dickson county resident, they need to extend that ISW eastward a few counties. They are ultra conservative so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't budge. That quarter inch ice line is going to verify east of the TN River regardless.

Yea, I agree with you on the conservativeness of the Nashville NWS which has come back to bite them before. They will probably wait until this afternoon sometime to change it if then even 

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15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, the Plateau is the barrier.  That said, even the 12Z Euro is bringing down temps in NE TN and SW VA.  I doubt it gets here, but that boundary continue to press.  I need to go look at the run2run temp changes.  

Yeah, that's what I thought. The cold is definitely pressing. Tuesday into Wednesday it even suggests temps of around 34 in the central valley. The NAM looks to be similar.  Still, doubt it based on prior events. It's close though. 

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I am in Montgomery County, I am surprised we aren’t under a ice storm warning too. Maybe they are thinking we will see a good amount of sleet mixed in that would keep us from ice storm warning criteria. The thing is if we get a bunch of sleet we should be under winter storm warning. Maybe they think we fall just shy of both and leave at WWA. Just my thoughts.

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1 minute ago, snowmaker said:

I am in Montgomery County, I am surprised we aren’t under a ice storm warning too. Maybe they are thinking we will see a good amount of sleet mixed in that would keep us from ice storm warning criteria. The thing is if we get a bunch of sleet we should be under winter storm warning. Maybe they think we fall just shy of both and leave at WWA. Just my thoughts.

OHX has a fear of being wrong and it shows. If a WWA had severe criteria layers, I'd certainly think this is an 'enhanced risk'.

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15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like the 18z NAM is like 10 - 20 miles south again with the freezing line. 

Looks like all those mesoscale models are picking up a lot of sleet on each run, been pretty consistent.  Time will tell but but there’s a pretty good consensus across the board for sleet. Personally I’ll take sleet all day long over freezing rain.  

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I don't know how it will turn out ultimately, but having lived in W. TN and N MS for a good chunk of my life, until we moved to E TN, I've been through these types of setups before. Well remember the '94 ice storm, and many other ones. The cold air often times "out-performs" the models. It has very little resistance coming down the MS river and funneling right into Memphis and NW MS. I remember many times when the forecast offices had to play catch up all through the event. In '94, the precip was supposed to change to rain several different times, but never did. Memphis ended up with over 2" of ZR in that one, and parts of N MS, as impossible as this seems had 6+" of ZR!! Now, to be fair, I don't think this one is quite as cold as the one in '94, nor will have the moisture of '94. Although the air to have made it that cold is around to the north, I don't think it's going to quite move into the midsouth ala '94. It's just the setup with multiple days of over-running precip that reminds me of '94. The fact that the models keep shifting south is putting more areas of N MS and Middle TN in play for some ice, and is really concerning for Memphis, which appears to be just about the bullseye for this event as it stands right now, unless it shifts even further south. This just looks like a classic Memphis and Mid-south ice storm from days gone by. Hopefully, they can avoid what my grandfather used to call an "ice-breakdown".

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1 minute ago, AMZ8990 said:

Looks like all those mesoscale models are picking up a lot of sleet on each run, been pretty consistent.  Time will tell but but there’s a pretty good consensus across the board for sleet. Personally I’ll take sleet all day long over freezing rain.  

Yeah, looks like more sleet this run, especially with the second wave

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ee49de4e3f19f6f20c

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Usually or lots of time get we get a last minute small tick to the north. But it may stay about the same from here on out we will see. I wouldn’t expect a big shift either way now but I could see 1 more small shift either way. Lots of time there is a more north flank than advertised on models at miscast time. But I do think southern parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi are in play as well as arctic air masses usually bleed south pretty easy in those areas.

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15 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, looks like more sleet this run, especially with the second wave

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ee49de4e3f19f6f20c

Looks similar to last weeks system that blasted north-western Arkansas, southern Missouri, Illinois and Ohio with 3-6 inches of snow.  These systems Have been one after another this month.  One of the wettest January’s I can remember 

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Usually or lots of time get we get a last minute small tick to the north. But it may stay about the same from here on out we will see. I wouldn’t expect a big shift either way now but I could see 1 more small shift either way. Lots of time there is a more north flank than advertised on models at miscast time. But I do think southern parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi are in play as well as arctic air masses usually bleed south pretty easy in those areas.

A lot of times the tick to the North happens because there’s nothing to keep it from doing that. Here we have a situation where high pressure behind the front is actually trying to move everything SE. So IMO if we see a little jog, it will likely be more south than east. SER is strong so it will not move much. I could be totally wrong but that’s my opinion.


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National Weather Service Memphis TN
901 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

02z surface analysis places an arctic cold front from New England
back through portions of the Cumberland Plateau, Northern
Alabama, and into Southern Mississippi. The freezing line across
the Mid-South extends from near Paris, TN back to Memphis, and
generally along the I-40 corridor into Little Rock, AR. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends show the leading edge of the wintry
precipitation already just east of the Mississippi River. KNQA
WSR-88D dual polarization products indicate precipitation is
falling mainly as freezing rain with the inclusion of some
embedded sleet over Northeast Arkansas. This verifies with METAR
observation and winter weather reports we`ve received thus far.
Unfortunately, the earliest 00Z models (NAM/HRRR) are indicating
slightly cooler temperatures which may end up impacting the
potential melting of any ice during the day on Tuesday.

A combination of a 30 kt 850 low level jet over the Arklatex and
low to mid level warm air advection and a mid-level shortwave
trough will assist in producing precipitation across the Mid-South
throughout the night with the first wave tapering off Tuesday
morning. 00Z KLZK upper air sounding is indicating a well
pronounced warm nose approaching 9C resulting in the complete
melting of precipitation as it reaches the below freezing
temperatures near the surface thus resulting in freezing rain.
Some sleet will still be possible further north towards the
Missouri/Kentucky border where temperatures are slightly cooler
aloft. Ice accumulation amounts across the warning area may end up
averaging between one quarter to one half inch across the warning
area with this first round if latest model guidance verifies
across the area. An evening update will be available shortly to
adjust precipitation chances upward and lower temperatures into
Tuesday.
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WRT the north or south trends, I think what we've seen with this system is pretty cool. So we have gradually been shifting the mid and upper level forcing north as the SE ridge is being resolved a bit stronger by models run over run (just using the GFS as an example of this phenomenon, not as the model I trust the most in this situation:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611c54bbf1890f1caf569

 

but the low level cold push has been coming in more south each recent run as the surface HP sneaks down beneath that forcing:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76117afd3ba05509d1cc38

 

So what you end up with wrt precip is a north trend, but also a more fzr/ IP trend than snow:

 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611b3c2afaf707cc05b96

 

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