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5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though but potentially a more amped up/ warmer solution is still on the table. 

True.

 

I just checked 00z/GEPS press 18z/2. the 12z/25 GGEM op is 15MB lower in MA with its 991MB low. Could it verify?  Unlikely when all ensembles are much weaker.  Trop tidbits has the ens MSLP and worth a check.  Check Mon night and Fri-Sat.

 

My snow at 0.7" in this in part of Wantage. I'm done for the day, possibly weekend. 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why cant the cold airmass we have right now stick around?

Because of the fast moving/progressive pattern and -PNA which encourages the SE ridge. We have transient blocking for the Mon event but we still have to deal with a 980s mb low moving into Ontario. We don’t have a pattern that reinforces cold air here so we get these one or two day things that then go right back to prolonged warmth. 

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2 hours ago, Nibor said:

This snow is fluffy af. 

Living in the lake effect belt, I have lots of experience with fluffy snow. At this time of the year, once the sun comes out, it obliterates a shallow layer of fluffy snow...so get out there and enjoy it!

2 hours ago, dWave said:

Lots of budding for sure. Some Cherry blossoms have bloomed too. Lasts night low 20s, dropped some though. Any flowers you'd typically see sprouting up in March to early Apr started showing up soon after that brief early Feb artic cold shot. Around the city, this winter has been almost devoid of freezing lows temps outside of 2 short cold shots

Here's lower Manhattan near 1 PP yday.

 

 

Screenshot_20230225_111427_Gallery.jpg

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Wow, thanks for sharing! It's been so mild this winter, there was bound to be new vegetation sprouting down there. I am assuming within the urban corridor that most plants will be ok even if we do actually winter in March.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything

Well, there is a cold air mass. It, like any other cold air mass this winter, is just sliding out super fast.

 

To everybody else in the NYC sub who got snow, congrats!!!! I'm excited for all of you and the opportunity to actually enjoy something other than eternal November.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Living in the lake effect belt, I have lots of experience with fluffy snow. At this time of the year, once the sun comes out, it obliterates a shallow layer of fluffy snow...so get out there and enjoy it!

Wow, thanks for sharing! It's been so mild this winter, there was bound to be new vegetation sprouting down there. I am assuming within the urban corridor that most plants will be ok even if we do actually winter in March.

Well, there is a cold air mass. It, like any other cold air mass this winter, is just sliding out super fast.

 

To everybody else in the NYC sub who got snow, congrats!!!! I'm excited for all of you and the opportunity to actually enjoy something other than eternal November.

So far here it was a brief burst of flurries that didn’t even accumulate from what I see, so another trace and from here it looks like we’re stuck in a virga hole. But good for those who do have snow on the ground. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I've grown bit more conservative in my 60th year attempting these forecasts (probably should have learned that 25 years ago). Forum can say and do whatever, though myself... I think whatever we say needs to be with consideration of whatever results.  Thanks for your update. 

Hit the magic number in Dec myself. hard to believe. Most folks are shocked at how old they actually look ( Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise have photo shop, and private trainers, surgeons and chefs to help them look good at 60 )according to research, and only get it when they see their former classmates and such; its reminds me of the classic scene in Papillion when Steve McQueen pokes his head out of the opening after being in solitary for months, and says how do I look? Yeah, you like fine pal....

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So far here it was a brief burst of flurries that didn’t even accumulate from what I see, so another trace and from here it looks like we’re stuck in a virga hole. But good for those who do have snow on the ground. 

That's discouraging when it looks good on radar and then...virga. :(  Euro trended much better for you guys to get an area wide snowfall. New Englanders aren't happy, but maybe it will benefit you guys.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

What are your thoughts on this one? What worries me is this is the timeframe that the ensembles link the SER to the NAO. Given that I would think that the GFS is more right UNLESS the ensembles are in incorrect. I hope the EURO is right.

I have no thoughts on anything outside 72 hours anymore.  Not bc I'm gun shy but bc too often there's huge changes that are unforeseen in the medium range.  All I can say is there's a strong storm signal for the east coast. 

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be snowing right now based on radar.....looks out window....it is not

Same here since mid-morning.  Based on radar you would think steady light snow for hours now.  Just one lone snow shower that left the slightest coating and that was about 11 am or so.  Nothing since.  Not expecting much for rest of this "event" as best echos are moving past my area.  

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2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Same here since mid-morning.  Based on radar you would think steady light snow for hours now.  Just one lone snow shower that left the slightest coating and that was about 11 am or so.  Nothing since.  Not expecting much for rest of this "event" as best echos are moving past my area.  

I mean this was kind of expected although even this event probably dissapointed expectations which weren't high to begin with. It was fun to see giant flakes though for 10 minutes.  

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