February 2023

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was their warmest also. So the -10 in February is a big mismatch.  They got down to -10 in February 1918 also. But -3 that January instead of just 23°.

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
2022-2023	11	23	-10	-10
2001-2002	23	22	13	13
1931-1932	14	18	11	11
1952-1953	9	15	10	9
1936-1937	10	15	10	10
2019-2020	15	14	12	12
1989-1990	4	14	3	3

 

Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
1933-1934	-17	-2	-18	-18
1942-1943	-11	3	-14	-14
1913-1914	18	-9	-11	-11
1895-1896	8	-10	-11	-11
1917-1918	-14	-3	-10	-14
2022-2023	24	8	-10	-9

 

1917-1918

-14

-3

-10

 

I noticed that both 1989-90 and 2001-02 stand out as temperature analogs for NYC and Boston,.  (you bolded it in the NYC list too).

1942-43 was a wild winter too....that was the coldest since 1933-34 at both Boston and NYC....did 1942-43 also have direct Arctic shots coming right down the Hudson? I think NYC went below -5 a couple of different times that winter.

 

1917-18, 1933-34 and 1942-43 are the three cold winters that really stand out before the current era.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1994 was the last -20° in Albany and Poughkeepsie along with Eastern PA.

 

Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1971	-28	0
2	1968	-26	0
-	1948	-26	0
3	1970	-24	0
-	1957	-24	0
-	1904	-24	0
4	1994	-23	0
5	1969	-22	0
-	1943	-22	0
6	1973	-21	0
-	1933	-21	0
7	1984	-20	0
-	1980	-20	0
-	1950	-20	0
-	1934	-20	0
-	1920	-20	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1961	-30	1
2	1967	-23	0
-	1950	-23	2
4	1954	-22	0
5	1994	-20	29
-	1981	-20	8
-	1968	-20	0

 

Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-20	8
2	1912	-14	0
3	1899	-13	0
4	1984	-12	15
5	1934	-11	0

Thanks, was Jan 1994 the coldest for MPO and Scranton too? I think it was near -25 at both locations-- colder than either Jan 1985 or Jan 1977?

 

[MJO812]

Next weekends storm is most likely done. 

The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. 

Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next weekends storm is most likely done. 

The models had the first storm weaker and much further east which would drag the trough east to make room for the 2nd storm to come up the storm. 

Now the models are showing the 1st storm stronger and much further west which is bad for the 2nd storm.

Spring will be here soon….enjoy the nice weather this week 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Spring will be here soon….enjoy the nice weather this week 

I hate spring and summer

[eduggs]

I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.

It’s been a week  since we have heard thunder 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.

Indeed.  Any hope for wintry weather probably won't happen until the last week of the month and beyond.

 

[donsutherland1]

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don do you think we could have another single digit day towards the later part of February?  We had one in 2015 on the last day of the month (almost March).  It must have been decades since we've had a single digit low in March.

 

 

I suspect that it will grow cooler for a time, but I doubt that there will be single digit cold again.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that it will grow cooler for a time, but I doubt that there will be single digit cold again.

But maybe cold enough for some snow in the last week of February and beyond? Just not arctic level cold?

I doubt we get anything before that too.

 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Indeed.  Any hope for wintry weather probably won't happen until the last week of the month and beyond.

 

I'm actually not expecting much of any snow for the rest of this winter outside the interior hills. I think some people forget how early winter typically ends along the coastal plain.

[donsutherland1]

As milder air pressed northward into a rapidly retreating Arctic air mass, the sky was filled with high and mid-level clouds. The mercury slowly clawed its way back from the single digits, climbing through the teens, and into the 20s. Two photos.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But maybe cold enough for some snow in the last week of February and beyond? Just not arctic level cold?

I doubt we get anything before that too.

 

I hope we can get some snow.

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, was Jan 1994 the coldest for MPO and Scranton too? I think it was near -25 at both locations-- colder than either Jan 1985 or Jan 1977?

 

It was the coldest for Scranton but the data from MPO was missing.

Time Series Summary for WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-21	0
2	1979	-16	0
3	1985	-14	0
4	1981	-13	0
5	1984	-11	0
-	1961	-11	0
6	1977	-10	0
-	1968	-10	0
-	1962	-10	1
-	1957	-10

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1989-1990	-20	39
1990-1991	-10	18
1991-1992	-4	18
1992-1993	-18	11
1993-1994	M	90
1994-1995	M	90
1995-1996	-11	33
1996-1997	-10	15
1997-1998	1	10
1998-1999	-6	11
1999-2000	-4	0

 

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Spring will be here soon….enjoy the nice weather this week 

Looks pretty crappy this week honestly. Lots of clouds followed by wet weather late week into the weekend. 

It's been a warm, snow-free winter but not a dry, sunny one courtesy of an active Pacific 

[LibertyBell]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the coldest for Scranton but the data from MPO was missing.

Time Series Summary for WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1994	-21	0
2	1979	-16	0
3	1985	-14	0
4	1981	-13	0
5	1984	-11	0
-	1961	-11	0
6	1977	-10	0
-	1968	-10	0
-	1962	-10	1
-	1957	-10

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1989-1990	-20	39
1990-1991	-10	18
1991-1992	-4	18
1992-1993	-18	11
1993-1994	M	90
1994-1995	M	90
1995-1996	-11	33
1996-1997	-10	15
1997-1998	1	10
1998-1999	-6	11
1999-2000	-4	0

 

Wild how cold Dec 1989 was at MPO-- I can extrapolate that Jan 1994 must have been -30 or colder based on that.

What is their lowest ever temp and when was it?  Thanks!

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks pretty crappy this week honestly. Lots of clouds followed by wet weather late week into the weekend. 

It's been a warm, snow-free winter but not a dry, sunny one courtesy of an active Pacific 

sunny Monday and Wednesday

[Nibor]

[eduggs]

There are at least 3 shortwaves directly involved with the evolution of the Feb 11 event. The lead wave is a little better on the 18z vs 12z - it's a little further south and squashed. The problem is that the 2nd wave is sharper/stronger, and the end result locally is the same or worse as 12z. If we could combine features from the 12z and 18z, we'd be closer to something wintry IMO.

The other tiny positive from 12z is that the 500mb mean on the GEFS is probably slightly more supportive of a coastal low. Trying to maintain a shred of hope for the sake of tracking enthusiasm... 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Mt Washington is interesting and I didn't know the stratosphere could get that low.

I find the Himalayas far more interesting though, with the possibility of yeti running around up there lmao ;-) and huge mountains that are the stuff of legends.

 

[vegan_edible]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There are at least 3 shortwaves directly involved with the evolution of the Feb 11 event. The lead wave is a little better on the 18z vs 12z - it's a little further south and squashed. The problem is that the 2nd wave is sharper/stronger, and the end result locally is the same or worse as 12z. If we could combine features from the 12z and 18z, we'd be closer to something wintry IMO.

The other tiny positive from 12z is that the 500mb mean on the GEFS is probably slightly more supportive of a coastal low. Trying to maintain a shred of hope for the sake of tracking enthusiasm... 

GFS seems to pull some major switch ups with every run, hopefully something positive changes and locks us in. Also, hoping the ECMWF corrects. That thing has been flip flopping like no other all season

[donsutherland1]

The Northeast saw near record and record cold temperatures this morning, as a fierce Arctic air mass moved through the region. That air mass is now rapidly departing.

Daily records included:

Binghamton: -13° (old record: -4°, 1996)
Boston: -10° (old record:-2°, 1886)
Bridgeport: -4° (old record: 5°, 1955 and 1996)
Hartford: -9° (old record: -8°, 1965)
Montreal: -21° (old record: -20°, 1963)
Mount Washington, NH: -47° (old record: -35°, 1963) ***new monthly and state monthly record***
New Haven: -3° (old record: 4°, 1963 and 2011)
New York City-JFK: 4° (old record: 9°, 1955 nd 1996)
New York City-LGA: 5° (old record: 10°, 1955, 1963, 1978 and 1996)
Newark: 5° (old record: 7°, 1985 and 1996)
Ottawa: -26° (old record: -22°, 1948)
Providence: -9° (old record: -2°, 1918)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: -22° (old record: -19°, 1996)
Quebec City: -25° (old record: -21°, 1996)
Sherbrooke, QC: -24° (old record: -6°, 2009)
Trois-Rivières, QC: -25° (old record: -20°, 1996)
White Plains: 1° (old record: 4°, 1978)
Worcester: -13° (old record: -4°, 1908, 1918, and 1934)
Yarmouth, NS: -7° (old record: -2°, 1967)

As had been the case during the December Arctic shot in a winter of almost unbroken warmth, the current Arctic shot responsible for the near record and record cold will be a fleeting one. The temperature will rocket toward normal levels and then above normal levels tomorrow. Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday.

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures through the second week of February. A storm could impact the region during February 10-11 if some of the guidance is right.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +19.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.463 today.

On February 2 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.644 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.666 (RMM).

[lee59]

So far this month my average is a high of 33.4 and a low of 14.4. That is an average of 23.9 I should take a picture before those wintry temperatures turn much more mild.

[lee59]

A little radiational cooling sending temperatures in the cold inland areas, well down into the teens and even some single digits, before the mild air moves in.

[Roger Smith]

Some other extremes of interest, -40 (F and C) at Bancroft ON which is roughly 150 miles west of Ottawa in forested lake country, and -42 F (-41.4 C) at Algonquin Park east gate, which is about 50 miles north of Bancroft. To compare, I've seen -40 to -42 F temperatures just slightly further south, in the Peterborough area and north of Lake Simcoe (in 1976 and 1994). In the Feb 1934 extreme cold event, Bancroft had a reading of -50 F (on Feb 9th) so this gives you some idea how this air mass compares historically, with a similar if less extreme pressure pattern.

The lowest reading at Ottawa airport (which is outside the urban heat island there although downwind from it) was -26F (-32.2 C). 

[lee59]

16 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Some other extremes of interest, -40 (F and C) at Bancroft ON which is roughly 150 miles west of Ottawa in forested lake country, and -42 F (-41.4 C) at Algonquin Park east gate, which is about 50 miles north of Bancroft. To compare, I've seen -40 to -42 F temperatures just slightly further south, in the Peterborough area and north of Lake Simcoe (in 1976 and 1994). In the Feb 1934 extreme cold event, Bancroft had a reading of -50 F (on Feb 9th) so this gives you some idea how this air mass compares historically, with a similar if less extreme pressure pattern.

The lowest reading at Ottawa airport (which is outside the urban heat island there although downwind from it) was -26F (-32.2 C). 

Still seems to be 2 to 10 below in much of the area around Ottawa

[coastalplainsnowman]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Mt Washington is interesting and I didn't know the stratosphere could get that low.

I find the Himalayas far more interesting though, with the possibility of yeti running around up there lmao ;-) and huge mountains that are the stuff of legends.

 

The explanation the NWS gave with that tweet was great.  Can't tell you how many times I've seen charts like that on here and had not the first clue how to go about reading it.  They gave a nice explanation for the layman which is much appreciated.

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As milder air pressed northward into a rapidly retreating Arctic air mass, the sky was filled with high and mid-level clouds. The mercury slowly clawed its way back from the single digits, climbing through the teens, and into the 20s. Two photos.

Nice pics, Don.  In that second one you certainly have their attention.  

[tmagan]

Number of days KISP have gone below zero:

 

1963 - 1988: 25

1989 - Present: 0

As a reference, Washington, DC (KDCA) went below five degrees four times in 1994, hasn't done it since.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, eduggs said:

I'm actually not expecting much of any snow for the rest of this winter outside the interior hills. I think some people forget how early winter typically ends along the coastal plain.

March has been snowier than December.