Dark Star Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: -3 low in Sparta. Wind has died down nice, and I'm ready for a little warmup, although not to the extent of what's forecast. I'm wondering what will become of the spring bloom, with things already popping through, and quite a ways to go yet until the official start of spring. Nothing really happens to pre spring blooms. That happens many times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 I wanted to throw boiling water in the air to see what happens but I’d probably just burn myself. Today’s low of 1 is the lowest temp on record for my PWS (5 year history), the highest is 99. 1 degree off of 0 and 100. Temp now up to 12. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Bottmed out at minus 4 here in Oak Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 Having an old house sucks on mornings like this. Old drafty windows, can't get the downstairs above 62 without space heaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Got down to -3 here. Would have done several degrees better with a snow cover. Our area was on the southern fringe of the coldest of the air mass. Still very impressive through short lived direct discharge of cold air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 after today there are no negative anomalies over our area on the eps through day 15 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup Monthly temperature averages are not very useful for local snowfall prediction because storm and temperature evolution are so variable on daily time steps. But the map does support a general continuation of the mean storm track being to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Only the 2nd time that NYC didn’t fall under 20° in January with single digits in Dec and Feb. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2022-2023 7 28 3 3 1936-1937 13 25 14 13 1989-1990 6 24 7 6 1931-1932 20 24 18 18 2001-2002 20 21 19 19 1992-1993 17 21 7 7 1952-1953 12 21 14 12 2019-2020 16 20 14 14 1948-1949 10 20 17 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, wdrag said: I'm focused on your op GFS guidance for the 11th-12th and 19th-20th... Hmmm...mighr be something going on, at least I84. It's Feb . If USA and Canadian guidance at 12 hours can be in error by 4F, who is to know for sure on what the next two weekends bring. The event on the 11th looks like a likely east coast winter storm. All three major sets of ensembles have a bit of a different take on the event. I'm not feeling good about it locally. The preceding s/w on Fri really pumps the heights and temps out ahead of the amplifying trof. That continues a seasonal trend of making things very difficult for us as winter weather enthusiasts. We're left hoping for a perfect synoptic evolution. Best threat in a while however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Dropped to 2 here in nw Suffolk. Cold but nothing crazy. We’ve hit 2 or below a few times the over the last decade. Coldest I’ve seen here was -4 I believe in 2014? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dropped to 2 here in nw Suffolk. Cold but nothing crazy. We’ve hit 2 or below a few times the over the last decade. Coldest I’ve seen here was -4 I believe in 2014? If we had a deep snow pack like in some of those years we would have gotten there. I think the Mt. Washington record shows just how intense this cold air mass was aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Dropped to 2 here in nw Suffolk. Cold but nothing crazy. We’ve hit 2 or below a few times the over the last decade. Coldest I’ve seen here was -4 I believe in 2014? The wind was pretty intense but for here this is typical cold that comes once or twice a season or it did a few decades ago. And it would last more than one day. The Feb negative departures will be gone and more in a week. Somehow we survived. Someone want to print the T-shirts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If we had a deep snow pack like in some of those years we would have gotten there. I think the Mt. Washington record shows just how intense this cold air mass was aloft A due north flow down the Hudson would have been colder. There's still some downslope component when it's a NW wind. And yes, snow would've helped. But Feb 2016 in the super Nino just had giant snow piles everywhere and it managed below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A due north flow down the Hudson would have been colder. There's still some downslope component when it's a NW wind. And yes, snow would've helped. But Feb 2016 in the super Nino just had giant snow piles everywhere and it managed below zero. True, I think Boston -11 and mtk 0 show we just missed the core of the cold. It was directed better at southern ne 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3.6 for the low here The maps from the Euro a few days ago showing well below 0 here didn't verify, but we ended up colder than models like the GFS/CMC. A blend of these models had the best forecast. I recently pointed out how the Euro was too cold, particularly over the ocean. Case in point, this morning 6z Euro initialized with -15 for Provincetown on Cape Cod. However, the coldest it got there was around -4. It's interesting that this model has some sort issue when extremely cold air masses move over water. It doesn't make sense for it to be -15 in Provincetown, but only -10 in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, Cfa said: I wanted to throw boiling water in the air to see what happens but I’d probably just burn myself. Today’s low of 1 is the lowest temp on record for my PWS (5 year history), the highest is 99. 1 degree off of 0 and 100. Temp now up to 12. I did it at 4 degrees. Not the best result I've ever gotten, partly because water wasn't totally boiling, but definitely crystalized before hitting the ground. Something tells me I could reach my 90s God willing and will still try to get outside to do this every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: True, I think Boston -11 and mtk 0 show we just missed the core of the cold. It was directed better at southern ne -20 wind chill at ISP is impressive, but this was blown out of proportion at least for here. Some blocking or at least a favorable PNA to make this last a few days would be more notable in the long run. When we make a run for 70 later this month it will be just as abnormal if not more so and that pattern will last. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 3.6 for the low here The maps from the Euro a few days ago showing well below 0 here didn't verify, but we ended up colder than models like the GFS/CMC. A blend of these models had the best forecast. I recently pointed out how the Euro was too cold, particularly over the ocean. Case in point, this morning 6z Euro initialized with -15 for Provincetown on Cape Cod. However, the coldest it got there was around -4. It's interesting that this model has some sort issue when extremely cold air masses move over water. It doesn't make sense for it to be -15 in Provincetown, but only -10 in Boston. Is it noteworthy that Montauk hit 0 while White Plains only got down to 1? Westhampton hitting 0 I understand, what with its freakish radiational cooling, but Montauk? I thought that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just now, coastalplainsnowman said: Is it noteworthy that Montauk hit 0 while White Plains only got down to 1? Westhampton hitting 0 I understand, what with its freakish radiational cooling, but Montauk? I thought that was interesting. It wasn't the radiational cooling this time, it was cold air advection. The core of the cold was to our north & east, so places north & east saw colder temps than those further west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. The full hourly data for the observed -28° wind chill: January 21, 1985 9 am: Temperature: -2° Winds: 29 mph Gusts: 37 mph wow 9 am is late for a morning low, that must've been some amazing CAA that day! And the high was 10 degrees? (I think it was in the single digits at NYC.) The latest single digit high at JFK was in Jan 1977 I think (but the wind chill not as cold that morning.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Few maps / data for min temperatures from this morning. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: True, I think Boston -11 and mtk 0 show we just missed the core of the cold. It was directed better at southern ne Boston made it to -11?! Wow I thought the low at Montauk was -2 Bridgeport got to -4 which was also impressive Providence at -9 JFK 4 and LGA 5 seem tame by comparison It was also colder NW of us as Binghamton made it down to -13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Only the 2nd time that NYC didn’t fall under 20° in January with single digits in Dec and Feb. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2022-2023 7 28 3 3 1936-1937 13 25 14 13 1989-1990 6 24 7 6 1931-1932 20 24 18 18 2001-2002 20 21 19 19 1992-1993 17 21 7 7 1952-1953 12 21 14 12 2019-2020 16 20 14 14 1948-1949 10 20 17 10 It didn't even get below 20 in Boston in January, that has to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Boston made it to -11?! Wow I thought the low at Montauk was -2 Bridgeport got to -4 which was also impressive Providence at -9 JFK 4 and LGA 5 seem tame by comparison It was also colder NW of us as Binghamton made it down to -13 Binghamton has a relatively high observation point at the airport at 1600’ which helped in this cold aloft scenario as they weren’t near the core of the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not really seeing the typical La Niña pattern in February so far like January. Very rare to get the coldest temperature of winter during a La Niña in February. Also notice the more active STJ for next weekend. Usually a reliable coastal storm signal. While the cold may be limited, could be a heavy wet snow signal. The biggest snowfall of season would be another Nino-like feature in February like the cold today. Also notice the MJO spread across the whole Pacific rather than limited to the Maritime Continent. February 1996 was an el nino that had a historic arctic outbreak in February, maybe it's more common in la nina after el nino? JFK's previous record for today was 9 degrees from 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Boston made it to -11?! Wow I thought the low at Montauk was -2 Bridgeport got to -4 which was also impressive Providence at -9 JFK 4 and LGA 5 seem tame by comparison It was also colder NW of us as Binghamton made it down to -13 Boston was -10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Boston was -10 Thanks that's what I read too, but saw a -11 mentioned here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Binghamton has a relatively high observation point at the airport at 1600’ which helped in this cold aloft scenario as they weren’t near the core of the cold. I also read that the air was historically cold aloft but only translated to "very cold" at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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