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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks-- everyone is so kind with all the condolences, if I was going to thank everyone individually it would be like a dozen posts in a row and you know I could NEVER do that ;-)

I hope you got to experience and remember 2002-03 (that Christmas snowstorm was amazing!) in Albany because that was one amazing and prolonged snowfall season up there and down here.  I actually worked up in Albany in the late 90s and early 00s for a time.  Lovely area and you could see the mountains even from inside the city.

 

I remember that storm! I was 7 at the time, mom got me my first "pro" skateboard and i remember not being able to leave the house to see family because of the snow. I distinctly remember making tunnels in the snow that christmas, good times. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I hope we get a cold spring and summer. 

Honestly, me too. But I accept I’m an anomaly there. 

My wife and I hike but never go or do anything in the summer. It’s just too hot. Prefer winter hiking in snow and cool spring / fall hiking. 

We’re going into NE for my bday next week and originally was hoping to get into some snowpack, but we’d have to go pretty far north at this point. 

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I hope we get a cold spring and summer. 

We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. 

And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012

Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years

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If we could just bag one moderate event before the super torch in the period coming up around the 11th-14th where the Euro showed a coastal yesterday, an unmitigated torch would go down quite a bit easier. 

Definitely may be some potential there, could just end up as rain or an inland only event for sure. But it’s better than absolutely zilch to watch. Depending upon timing I may be inadvertently chasing that one in NE. I’ll be sure to bring my good shell and an umbrella :raining:.

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. 

And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012

Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years

or just like 2002....

 

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1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

I'm kinda with Liberty and I'm looking for one torchy summer and hopefully ENSO will kick us into a semi decent winter next year

We'll have to wait until spring plays out to see where we are with enso. There's a spring forecast barrier we need to get through to have a better idea how that looks. 

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27 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's just plain hard to get good looks in a la nina February any way you slice it. Unless, blocking. The way I see it, there's also some constructive interference from the MJO with la nina just prior to that. So there it is. West gets the trough, as you can see by the cold there. We ridge. 

Beyond that, it's a little iffy to me. The MJO might want to keep it moving. But also, the American guidance is saying the strat might need to be watched again now. Which may add uncertainty beyond that. You just know that one will go off too, just in time to ruin spring :axe:

It seems like we had the worst possible series of events this year, an early season el nino type pattern when el ninos are usually backloaded and a late season la nina pattern, when la ninas are usually front loaded or book ends.  That back end la nina scenario seems to be our only hope this season and we'd probably need a major SSW for that this season.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

do you think there is there a chance of some type of quad la nina next year? sounds like hell

That is extremely unlikely. Enso neutral is still a possibility. El nino is favored. However we just can't be certain of anything just yet. Easily get burned at this time of year making assumptions with enso. That much I'm certain of. 

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34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

March will be warm This year as well. Mjo stuck in warm phases 

Where do you see this? Smarter and safer to expect a warm March, yes. But I just checked out the MJO on a page that lists all the model forecasts for it and it generally looked like it’s moving pretty quickly. I’m not good with MJO prognostication though by any means. 

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57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. 

And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012

Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years

Summer of 2014 was cold and dreary. Remember bringing my kids to a carnival in early August and we all had sweatshirts on in the day.

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