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I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. 

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6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. 

Yes I was looking at that too and it would be worth it to get another 2002-03 next year.  Hopefully we get a very hot summer like 2002 was too.

 

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6 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. 

 

MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February.  I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen.  I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active.  You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now.

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February.  I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen.  I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active.  You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now.

The MJO is at its highest amplitude this winter. How long that will last remains to be seen. If it persists, it might play more of a role than it has so far.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February.  I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen.  I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active.  You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now.

I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.

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3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.

Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland 

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The story of our winter so far...

From the NWS:

The arctic cold front slips through Friday morning. There are some differences in the timing, but all bring in the coldest air Friday night with 85h temps dropping to around -25C and in some cases approaching -30C. With no downstream block over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass, in and out as fast as it came in. In addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills at the very least at advisory criteria with a small chance of reaching warning levels inland. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to drop several degrees below zero with the single digits at the coast. For highs Saturday, most locations will be in the teens.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland 

Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway. 

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina.

I agree that very late February is too far out to have a good idea, but I think we can say with confidence that the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February are gonna be an all-out blowtorch.

Also amazing how fast of a turnaround we're gonna have with the arctic shot. It's gonna go from high temps in the 20s on saturday to near 50 on sunday. You don't see that very often. 

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree that very late February is too far out to have a good idea, but I think we can say with confidence that the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February are gonna be an all-out blowtorch.

Also amazing how fast of a turnaround we're gonna have with the arctic shot. It's gonna go from high temps in the 20s on saturday to near 50 on sunday. You don't see that very often. 

Yeah the one time I remember something like that happening was with a southeaster in late January 1994.

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think too much is put into these records. 

If CPK goes snowless this year people will read wayyyy too much into it (MJO/CC/la Nina/fast flow/extended jet) when in reality, it's one fluke different than 97/98. Or any other year where we had one event.

I think you're wishing and hoping because you love snow so much you forget how bad climate change is becoming and how much worse it will get and in very short order.  March 2012, then December 2015 and now January 2022, we'll see how soon the next one happens, I'm betting on 5 years or less.

 

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