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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Sorry man, this is brutal. 

Not even having the excitement of a trackable event even if it doesn’t pan out for one area or another is especially tough. It just feels like an endless shutout without any dopamine injection from a model showing at least a quasi-favorable outcome in the short range. 

Most fun I’ve had on AmericanWX was in the lead up to 1/29/22, and second most fun was going back and skimming the threads from old storms the past decade. 

you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No chance this happens imo. It'll prob end up in the low teens or something 

If there’s the north wind down the Hudson with no downsloping it may get pretty close. -3 is likely overdone but could get to 0. There’s also no snow here but it’s on the ground close enough to here. 

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The Euro argues the 850s are cold enough at -28C.  It probably comes down to timing issues...we ideally want the coldest air aloft in that 08-12Z period which we have but if the core of the coldest temps begin sliding NE we want the winds to drop off somewhat...15kts is not too bad, 15G25 would probably mix things enough that NYC if we lost the strongest CAA would not go below 0.  The wind direction of 320-330 is fairly good

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17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month

Nah, signed up last January (before Hunga Tonga erupted, funnily enough). Began reading the forums I believe last November before making an account. 

2021 unfortunately was much less eventful down my ways, still got snow but not nearly the bombardment up north received. The big Feb 1 storm gave me at my house 5-6 inches but 18+ at my work west of NYC. Was a fun up at work at least. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak. 

meh might as well break the record we've gotten this far

 

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The HRRR doubles down again at 18z....the look of the precip signature again appears to be something induced by the 250mb jet...the 18Z NAM now has a signal as well.  There is gonna be a "screw zone" in all likelihood between the jet activity and the main system...we may really want the whole thing to shift 50-70 miles north 

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Pretty big jump north on the 0z NAM. But precipitation still doesn't get north of MD. Not surprised to see the NAM make noticeable shifts, particularly after 48 hours. It's more in line with the GFS now.

It would take a significant change in timing of the waves to get this much further north. The southern wave has to be further out ahead of the suppressive northern stream. These kinds of miracles don't seem to happen in the modern modeling regime. Credit to model development.

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Central Park had 17.2” from that. I still think that’s a top 10 event or close. 

Central Park had 17.4 from that storm which ties it for 16th on the all time list. You have to get over 18.1 inches now to break into the top ten in NYC.

I received 27 from that up in Orange County. Great storm hard to believe only two years ago considering what we’re dealing with this year.


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