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 For the record (not because I believe it though it will be interesting to follow), the 12Z Euro has -2 at LaGuardia at 168! That would be the coldest there since the -3 of 1/19/1994. But that's very likely going to verify too cold being that it is an extreme operational run at day 7 and there has been a cold bias with models overall. To show how extreme this run was, it had +10 there on the 0Z and low 20s on yesterday's 12Z. To compare for the 12Z runs, the UKMET has +6, GFS +18, CMC +19, and ICON +23. The 18Z GFS is much colder than its prior run and has +6.

 This extreme Euro run has -40C at 850 mb then in N ME, which would not be far from the coldest on record in the lower 48/just above the coldest in the Midwest for the 1/1985 extreme outbreak. The CMC also has -40C while the UKMET has -39C and the JMA has -37C. The 12Z GFS has it down "only" to ~-31C.

 Regardless of the likelihood that the 12Z Euro is overplaying the degree of cold at the surface, there may very well end up being the coldest air in a good number of years in the NE a week from now. 

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56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1 to 3" type event, more to the south. Let's see. At this point nam has nothing but rgem has been much better of late 

Looks like our best chance so far this winter. Need to see some other models come aboard, but RGEM is definitely the model we want in our corner. It has been the model that has been down on every threat when the NAM has been hyping, so it's interesting to see it being the model that's giving us snow. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. 

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Looks like our best chance so far this winter. Need to see some other models come aboard, but RGEM is definitely the model we want in our corner. It has been the model that has been down on every threat when the NAM has been hyping, so it's interesting to see it being the model that's giving us snow. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. 

Cmc too but further south

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Snow mean on the eps less than an inch out until the end. After the 24 hour cold snap it’s back above normal and snowless. Looks like that will be it for winter (if you can call it that) 

I just wanna avoid the cold altogether.

Nothing worse than bitter cold on top of the disaster that was this winter. 

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