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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Still seems a bit aggressive to go above normal for that period even if its only 33-60% for the northeast. Looking at the ensembles from the GEFS/GEPS/EPS would all indicate at least a neutral chance of temps in that range if not a slight tick blo normal. I see that was issued yesterday. 

Here is the latest product issued from the CPC which is more inline with what im seeing, also shaves off one warm day on the 21st and adds the 28th.

What a difference new data and a day makes....

 

814temp.new.gif

814prcp.new.gif

Not the same ol same ol….where’s qgSmeg and the Pope?  I mean how come they aren’t posting these maps? 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please snow or icestorm . Please 

+KFS briefly going -KFS at the 18z run?  Hiccup?

I’ve never thought you guys or anyone were done. It’s still early. It may have been a dumpster fire of a winter, but climo still likes to have a minor say. Record low (or high) snow/precip is tough to come by for a reason.  Just like in summer droughts, the odds are it can’t run that futility play forever.

It doesn’t mean a memorable stretch at all, but just wintry weather around.  It does start to fight the gaining sun angle though, just like HHH in the fall in reverse.

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I didn’t think the 18z was that bad anyway. 

You all just got more nerve than a bum tooth these days.  Was less than perfect… ? fine.  Uh this is still just a signal and as far as signals go that’s you’re putting a bunch of baroclinic action right through a signal- that’s all you can expect from now. 

By the way 18z Nam is also 70 over metro west of Boston on Thursday regardless of whatever the 2 m says those parametrics combined with a post February 10 sun is going to soar. West wind open sky 11 Celsius at 900 mbar with low dewpoints and no snow pack. 

Pretty sure that would be historic numbers a little bit more meaningfully than 58 we put up last week

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC is amazing. this is what happens when you have a strong S/W run into confluence. lots of cold air in place and the energy is forced to go S instead of cut

such a strong thermal gradient, too. you can get heavy precip based off of that alone 

E3ED1878-64E8-41E4-BB03-7377B923395F.thumb.gif.1277b9840feba1f524122989948048dc.gifDD54D53F-5CD9-4906-8E7C-CD6BC9BB8621.thumb.png.2438e76df061d7af644c8d969d4b710b.pngDE6DF443-BF96-4F2F-A496-F8F6CB5C5250.thumb.png.102f8959e5ec197a4b2c5c9c0f865b7e.png

93-94 type pattern.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

93-94 type pattern.

Let’s see how this all plays out, with regards to model consistency but I think we might see a great late winter stretch,  for our latitude.  
I’m still expecting to come in under seasonal average but at this point,  I’m thinking an additional 15”-20” of snow is not out of the realm of possibilities.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Let’s see how this all plays out, with regards to model consistency but I think we might see a great late winter stretch,  for our latitude.  
I’m still expecting to come in under seasonal average but at this point,  I’m thinking an additional 15”-20” of snow is not out of the realm of possibilities.

I honestly still think I could hit the low end of my 60-70" forecast range IMBY. Would need some luck, of course...but possible if things break right. Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding my breath, but...

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