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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie that’s exactly what he said. Colder week 3. 

I would say it was a little confusing in that it implied the rest of February would be warm which it might not be. Specifically, the weeklies kind of cut it off around 2/23ish…a bit of semantics but the last few days of the month could be more wintry than one might glean from that tweet. But he might have not had the daily breakdown available…week 2 as a whole is going to be warm but it is front-loaded warmth…that 2/24-2/27 period might be cold. 
 

I agree it was a pretty accurate description of weeks 3/4. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say it was a little confusing in that it implied the rest of February would be warm which it might not be. Specifically, the weeklies kind of cut it off around 2/23ish…a bit of semantics but the last few days of the month could be more wintry than one might glean from that tweet. But he might have not had the daily breakdown available…week 2 as a whole is going to be warm but it is front-loaded warmth…that 2/24-2/27 period might be cold. 
 

I agree it was a pretty accurate description of weeks 3/4. 

Yes, this is what I was meaning. 

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

If the GFS is correct it looks like the coast is going to have quick rain to snow next week.  Hopefully this is actual snow on the pavement. I'm done with white rain.

You talking about the system at day 9-10? That’s a full blown snowstorm on the GFS….even a Scooter-approved arctic high building in. 
 

But let’s get it inside of 5 days. A lot of the models have that system. But some (like GGEM) are pretty warm with it. 

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

If the GFS is correct it looks like the coast is going to have quick rain to snow next week.  Hopefully this is actual snow on the pavement. I'm done with white rain.

While that sounds nice…I wouldn’t take any 18z run seriously at this stage. 18z always shows something exotic, or horrid depending on the ones point of view. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You talking about the system at day 9-10? That’s a full blown snowstorm on the GFS….even a Scooter-approved arctic high building in. 
 

But let’s get it inside of 5 days. A lot of the models have that system. But some (like GGEM) are pretty warm with it. 

Is this verbatim for Thursday the 23rd? 

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24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But we already knew that, and he wasn’t seeing the new weeklies is what I’m saying.  And we already knew if any change, it’s not til end of month and into March..so he wasn’t telling us anything we didn’t already know. 

He wasn’t giving us fake news either. 
 

Anyways who knows. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He wasn’t giving us fake news either. 
 

Anyways who knows. 

And he wasn’t looking at todays version of the weeklies either…cuz they weren’t out at that point. And what he was saying we already knew from Thursday, and he was making it sound like it was the latest version.  So as Will stated, that was my point. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

And he wasn’t looking at todays version of the weeklies either…cuz they weren’t out at that point. And what he was saying we already knew from Thursday, and he was making it sound like it was the latest version.  So as Will stated, that was my point. 

Well both weeks are probably well AN so no argument from me with his take. Maybe a few days to cool off. The new weeklies confirm the old ones. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs would be nice. Both suites of guidance showing something. Tough to buy and easily could trend warmer.

At least this one has creeped inside of 10 days. I honestly can only count a handful of larger threats that got inside 10 days (the Dec 16th and Dec 23rd storms, maybe Jan 23rd?) before evaporating or trending worse. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

At least this one has creeped inside of 10 days. I honestly can only count a handful of larger threats that got inside 10 days (the Dec 16th and Dec 23rd storms, maybe Jan 23rd?) before evaporating or trending worse. 

Yeah we’ll see. Fully prepared for a Canadian outcome though. 

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You talking about the system at day 9-10? That’s a full blown snowstorm on the GFS….even a Scooter-approved arctic high building in. 
 

But let’s get it inside of 5 days. A lot of the models have that system. But some (like GGEM) are pretty warm with it. 

Well some of the panels I looked at had Boston starting as rain and then the snow working west to east.

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2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Well some of the panels I looked at had Boston starting as rain and then the snow working west to east.

Yeah there’s a million different ways that system could go. It could be rain initially and then flipping or it could be a cutter or it could be all snow. The cold advects in during the storm on that run so the beginning is warmer…though it looked plenty cold enough aloft the whole time, so if it started as rain on the 18z GFS, it would prob be extremely brief and right on the water. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

GFS is a nice starting point, can always raise them later.

D6E95D27-17FE-44A4-90FC-99444E930F47.thumb.png.57951542dec2ab9b9db049064db15b07.png

Well it(long range clowns)hasn’t showed much of anything in SNE all winter, and folks were always saying that even the long range clown snow maps shows nothing.  Now it’s showing a burial..maybe some folks will be happy now? But again, it’s 18z.  

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