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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Harbor froze over then too? How often does it happen?

A 2015-esque freeze event prob is only once a decade or less. But Boston harbor and chunks of Cape Cod Bay and ACK sound do freeze at least a couple times a decade.

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Just now, DavisStraight said:

I was down at the Cape in the 2005 cold snap, there was ice as far as I could see, looked pretty thick too.

Yes, my folks neighbor and one of the Woods Hole oceanographic institute scientists, walked way out from New Silver beach / Wild Harbor to the end of Nyes Neck on the frozen bay.   

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14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I believe January 1976 they were racing ice boats on the Charles River basin near the hatch shell.   I wasn’t allowed to go out on it but I have a picture somewhere of my father and sister standing out on the river.

That was a very cold stretch. 
 

Charles river though is pretty easy to freeze. It freezes most winters though I’m sure that year it was very thick and you could easily have walked on it. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a very cold stretch. 
 

Charles river though is pretty easy to freeze. It freezes most winters though I’m sure that year it was very thick and you could easily have walked on it. 

Remember sometime in the early 2000s watching the students commute to class across the river between Allston and Cambridge.  I mean dozens of students walking across at a time.

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Sounds like WPC is leaning to a slower evolution late week.

Two general forecast scenarios seem to exist in guidance with 
recent GFS/Canadian runs showing run to run stream separation 
leading to an upper low closing off in the Southwest/northern 
Mexico Tuesday-Wednesday that is stronger then slower to eject 
downstream through the east-central U.S. next week compared to the 
ECMWF/UKMET. Ensemble members by and large showed similar 
progression trends as their parent models with the 
GEFS/Canadian/NAEFS ensemble means less progressive than the ECMWF 
ensemble mean. This remains a difficult emerging split flow 
forecast with low predictability, but still suspect that a 
solution on the less progressive side of the full envelope of 
guidance makes more sense given much guidance does develop a 
separated southern stream system of which often are on the slow
side to eject. 

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Said yesterday it’s the same setup as 2 weeks ago. No cold air .. NNE gets pasted 

The fact that the GFS is showing an inland runner is a red flag IMO. At this range you want the GFS being a complete miss to the east given it’s progressive/suppressed bias because you know it’s only going to correct further and further west as we get closer in time. Normally if there’s going to be an east coast snowstorm, at this point in time before the event, the GFS is a whiff while all the other models show something hitting
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