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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems the models are hinting are more of a general period that may last 4 days ... couple of events nested inside, spread out over gray days in between. 

18z GFS looked like cold solutions for us, with options for mixy/ice and or snow.   Previous runs were quite a bit NW ...

I don't actually have a problem with the NW solution set, though. The NAO being positive favors that storm track... so, I'm not willing to trust these eye candy cycles like this one until maybe 8 days from now.  haha

Off hr runs always entertain, or disappoint like clockwork. 

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe for you? Not here. It’s quick in and out, but not meh at all.  Beer? 

Plenty of subzero readings at TAN.  This is just a quick glance.

Jan 2017 had consecutive below 0 days.  -10F and a -4F.

Feb 2016 had 3 consecutive days below 0.  -1, -9, and -7.

Feb 2015 was nuts.  There were 11 days below 0F. 

Ig8ihzC.png

 

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6 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

just bring the moisture, right?  What was the actual number above average?  The last ten days have rocked, but I'm surprised it got above average after the first 10 days of Jan.  Nearly bare ground for New Years is a tough start.

Snowfall wise it wasn’t as much above here as it was points south towards CVT and NH/ME I think.

The mountains are hard as average isn’t really there, but BTV was spot on normal January snow.  Near me the Worcester, VT COOP had 29” on a 27” average for January. Newport and Sutton looks average.  Could call it average to a bit above in spots. More above south/central regions of NNE.

 

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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Like I said.  One day of -5 +/- is not crazy here.

Feb 2015 was nuts for cold.

Well I did say it’s very short, but it will be intense, and not meh. Is it as long as the others you pointed out, no, not at all. But it doesn’t look to be meh…just short.  But whatever. 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I did say it’s very short, but it will be intense, and not meh. Is it as long as the others you pointed out, no, not at all. But it doesn’t look to be meh…just short.  But whatever. 

I think the winds make it intense . To me it’s really about How cold it feels when your outside in the elements . But there seems to be some semantics over the duration of the shot compared to just the lowest temp 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

TAN ASOS is a bit of a pit too compared to nearby stations…even on rad nights. Definitely a different feel compared to what we’ll have tomorrow night. Feb 16 will probably be worse than this down there though. 

2/13 - 2/14?

2016-02-13 26 -1 12.5 -18.1 52 0 T
2016-02-14 13 -9 2.0 -28.8 63 0 0.00
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Yeah rad pits in calm wind showing -7 is a completely different sensible wx feel to -7 ripping with 25 knot winds. 
 

You can get -7 in calm winds and be 25-30F a few hours later in daylight. Tomorrow afternoon might be near 0F in spots near NH border and single digits in much of MA with wind. That’s the difference between “fake” cold and these deep layer CAA events. 
 

You typically want to combine the two if you want to go super low in the rad pits…you get the CAA and then the next night it goes calm and you put up a -22F or something. We won’t do this in that event because it’s too fast. But some of the slower ones like Jan 1994 and Jan 2004 were able to do it. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Locking in the GFS.

It's whatever at this point in my world.  If we get some snow and I can plow snow great if not the world won't end.  I'm going to be a dad in June bigger things to look forward to on the horizon!  Take it a few days at a time and see how it shakes out.

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1 hour ago, ScituateWX said:

It's whatever at this point in my world.  If we get some snow and I can plow snow great if not the world won't end.  I'm going to be a dad in June bigger things to look forward to on the horizon!  Take it a few days at a time and see how it shakes out.

Congrats and gl. It’s an awesome experience.

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