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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

The "We don't have winters like we used to" thing has been around a long, long time. My grandfather who was born 1909 would tell me as a kid in the 70's that same thing. Made my furious. Until that time in February 1978... it actually pained him that I was around to see the greatest storm in New England's history.

Don't let them fool ya lots of ratters back then. I am going to run some numbers for ORH and see who had the most snow growing up. Before I look it's the Millennials by far

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Don't let them fool ya lots of ratters back then. I am going to run some numbers for ORH and see who had the most snow growing up. Before I look it's the Millennials by far

Yeah i didn't know that at 9 but when I was older and the weather channel existed I learned pappy told some tales...

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know we keep saying this...but you younger kidz have no idea how awful many of those winters were. Sure it's a little warmer nowadays, but imagine a map showing 3-6" making you literally stay up all night to observe it. This was our youth for many of us.

Cut that range by 80% and take a look at the mid-Atlantic thread the past 24 hours

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't let them fool ya lots of ratters back then. I am going to run some numbers for ORH and see who had the most snow growing up. Before I look it's the Millennials by far

The period betwen 1955-56 and 1971-72 for ORH is unmatched....not a single ratter for 17 consecutive seasons. That's where I had to hear all the "not like they used to be" crap from....but they were right, it was an insane stretch.

The 1930s-early 1950s were sneaky awful, but nobody cares about those years.... great depression and WWII were going on, lol.

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6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I do have that nostalgia from the 90's of seeing Mark Rosenthals' 6-12"+ shade of purple on the south coast and thinking it was a going to be a biggie..which would sometimes get updated to the white shade of 12"+, with the 6-12" moving further inland. Good times. 

I know I'm talking about a bit later (like mid 90s)..but those numbers still felt like a lot then, compared to what we've gotten used to over the past 20. 

Yeah the mid-90s broke the crap streak but we were still living off the experience of the previous years so for a while, those 6-10" type maps would still be really exciting....I feel like once we got done with April '97, there had been enough big dogs that the moderate storms stopped being as much of a high.

It takes a few years to get your priors updated.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The period betwen 1955-56 and 1971-72 for ORH is unmatched....not a single ratter for 17 consecutive seasons. That's where I had to hear all the "not like they used to be" crap from....but they were right, it was an insane stretch.

The 1930s-early 1950s were sneaky awful, but nobody cares about those years.... great depression and WWII were going on, lol.

My brother became a city planner in the 90's and he mentioned to me about those years (50's and 60's) were memorable from a societal perspective  for two big reasons. The explosions in cars and the existence of suburbs. Changed the way people thought about winter from a management style. There were now consequences for snow management. people expected snow to cleared and for work to get done no matter the weather.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know we keep saying this...but you younger kidz have no idea how awful many of those winters were. Sure it's a little warmer nowadays, but imagine a map showing 3-6" making you literally stay up all night to observe it. This was our youth for many of us.

Thanks kid.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The period betwen 1955-56 and 1971-72 for ORH is unmatched....not a single ratter for 17 consecutive seasons. That's where I had to hear all the "not like they used to be" crap from....but they were right, it was an insane stretch.

The 1930s-early 1950s were sneaky awful, but nobody cares about those years.... great depression and WWII were going on, lol.

My youth years. Always sledding pond skating 

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Snow clearing got a lot better over the last 40 yrs or so.  Where I grew up we used to be able to reliably ride snowmobiles on the country roads with anything over 6 inches for a least few hours especially if the snow fell late at night.  We would have the country roads to ourselves.  Nowadays - feet of snow can fall but hardly any of it has a chance to even make it to the ground let alone pile up.

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The EPS mean might be interesting on that shortly, because its prior have been pretty tepid ...indicating almost no detection.

The GEFs have a high latitude Miller B, but ... the cold in SE Canada and any would-be attending/antecedent +PP is not as good as some of the operational versions - so the prior ends up in S Ontario prior to commitment in the GOM.  That's not gonna cut it for much of region... perhaps lead mix.

The take away is that the signal is legit - as I've been saying for a while, I know, but it's starting to emerge in the guidance now.  Nice to have this next step actually take place - it's a been a problem this season getting that to actually happen... jesus

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The EPS mean might be interesting on that shortly, because its prior have been pretty tepid ...indicating almost no detection.

The GEFs have a high latitude Miller B, but ... the cold in SE Canada and any would-be attending/antecedent +PP is not as good as some of the operational versions - so the prior ends up in S Ontario prior to commitment in the GOM.  That's not gonna cut it for much of region... perhaps lead mix.

The take away is that the signal is legit - as I've been saying for a while, I know, but it's starting to emerge in the guidance now.  Nice to have this next step actually take place - it's a been a problem this season getting that to actually happen... jesus

yeah, looks like there's a legit signal showing up here now. would like a better airmass, but whatever at this point

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1675252800-1676052000-1676246400-40.thumb.gif.6e121fcf78774191eea4954fa14a37cb.gif

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s fine . But I’d prefer ending it Morch , 31st

If we exclude April, then the record changes. ORH lowest snowfall of 21.2” in 1954-55 included 2 inches in April 1955so their record would actually be 19.2 inches which is a lot easier to pass. 

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29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pick you birth year and figure out how many 6 inch snows based on ORH were seen during your say age 9 to 16

Screenshot_20230201_144110_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230201_144215_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230201_144245_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230201_144320_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230201_144346_Chrome.jpg

According to this list it’s 25: 6”+  for me from the 8 seasons when I was age 9-16 1994-2001. Looks like someone born in 1995 from 2004-11 saw 31 6”+ storms. 

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28 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Snow clearing got a lot better over the last 40 yrs or so.  Where I grew up we used to be able to reliably ride snowmobiles on the country roads with anything over 6 inches for a least few hours especially if the snow fell late at night.  We would have the country roads to ourselves.  Nowadays - feet of snow can fall but hardly any of it has a chance to even make it to the ground let alone pile up.

Agree on this. Skied and sledded many country roads.

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3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah, I'd say 5% chance ORH does it.  I think they'll pass it somewhat comfortably.

They only need 3.8” to beat it (and 1.8 inches if we use Kevin’s criteria of excluding snowfall past 3/31). One run-of-the-mill forgettable front ender would do it. 
 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Agree on this. Skied and sledded many country roads.

We used to always sled down the street when I was younger. Plows would get it down to packed snow but they didn’t use as much salt back then so you would have this 1-2” layer of hard packed snow to sled on in the middle of the street (our neighborhood was a giant hill with 2 or 3 streets running down it). 
 

We used to hate it when the sanders came through because it would temporarily screw up the sledding but after a little more snow, the sand disappeared. It didn’t melt the snow like salt does. They were obsessed with using sand back then for traction. 

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