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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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Wow.... +7 to +10 are the monthly average departures for the 4 majors at NWS.  It's interesting that 1,000' high ORH was the 10.3.  They may cleave a decimal by tomorrow but by and large the numbers are what they are...

I knew we were running warm this month, but hadn't bothered to look. That's pretty amazing actually.

You know it may be a gross approach, but ... heh, if we merely return to the previous larger hemispheric dynamic after Saturday ... what would that mean for February?   How would ( -said return) doing the same thing give us a different result ? 

If I was y'all ..I might consider that.   Just sayn'

Anyway, ... regardless of how February turns out, over all, it appears after review ( to me -) the the signal on the 11th/12th is legit.  Regardless of what form - exactly - it should take, it's coherent in the ensembles membership, and there may even be room in - at least - the numerical telecon spread to allow that window. ...mostly in the GEFs...but the EPS may some tend.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone know how Garth feels about this winter so far? Lol dude has 2 dozen fuck this winter posts. Party on Garth

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

garth.jpg

 ...Yeah. I know. It's awful, and I am droning on with negativity, and preaching to the choir.  In my heart I don't want it to be over, but the sensible part of me says the next 6-8 weeks will be nothing short of continued disappointment, heartache and sadness...eventually boiling over to a crescendo of screams of, f.uck this winter, while barely holding back from taking it out on my computer with every sad sack, pathetic model run that is spewed forth.  

I can't wait for another 2 days when the damn hedgehog will be yanked from it's stump to tell me that that there will be another 6 weeks of winter.  This combined with watching obnoxious Eagles fans descend on Arizona for the next 10 days is just icing on the cake. 

 

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59 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow.... +7 to +10 are the monthly average departures for the 4 majors at NWS.  It's interesting that 1,000' high ORH was the 10.3.  They may cleave a decimal by tomorrow but by and large the numbers are what they are...

I knew we were running warm this month, but hadn't bothered to look. That's pretty amazing actually.

You know it may be a gross approach, but ... heh, if we merely return to the previous larger hemispheric dynamic after Saturday ... what would that mean for February?   How would ( -said return) doing the same thing give us a different result ? 

If I was y'all ..I might consider that.   Just sayn'

Anyway, ... regardless of how February turns out, over all, it appears after review ( to me -) the the signal on the 11th/12th is legit.  Regardless of what form - exactly - it should take, it's coherent in the ensembles membership, and there may even be room in - at least - the numerical telecon spread to allow that window. ...mostly in the GEFs...but the EPS may some tend.

Yea, mid month is a window. Agree. Looks like the brutal modoki la nina forcing relaxes some ...

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4 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Pretty nice high building down into the system in la la land on the op gfs. Shows how it can be done atleast with cold lurking over the border

This will be the main diff from January, IMO...there will be a source region lurking in Canada, as opposed to Sibera.

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14 minutes ago, 512high said:

Happy early birthday! And I hope your right on snow!

well happy birthday, and I'm still in Soflo so it'll probably snow, seems to be the theme this winter, I'm gone and there's winter at home...have to coach my son how to take care of the chickens when it gets ill cold later this week...he knows tho, animals can get wet, and can get cold, but can't get cold and wet, that's a death sentence... meanwhile it's mid 80s, and by weeks end be close to 90 here, even locals and snowbirds are saying it's warmer than usual this time of year here, so take that for what it's worth...

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s been a lot of scooter highs in clown range the past few runs. It kind of fits the pattern though…I know it’s popular in here right now to forecast non-stop warmth for February but it’s really hard to get all-out furnaces when you still have some cross polar flow into Canada. Its the type of pattern that will be mild in the mean, but there could be bouts of colder intrusion. 
 

We’ll see though….maybe the cross polar flow shuts off and if it does, then it could torch more without interruption. 

I agree...I don't think its wall-to-wall furnace like 2018. There will be some snow.

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Keep in mind, the PV remaining rather stout maybe more beneficial in terms of winter prospects in February, than if we saw a SSW. Those tend to excite and subsequently stagnate the MJO when they occur...and it will be in shitty phases this month. This is partly why Feb 2018 was a wall of warmth. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I don't think its wall-to-wall furnace like 2018. There will be some snow.

2018 did have a warning event mid month right before the furnace. We’ll see if we grab one this year but this is feeling like a warmer version of 88-89. Hedge against snow even if there’s windows of opportunity. 

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42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2018 did have a warning event mid month right before the furnace. We’ll see if we grab one this year but this is feeling like a warmer version of 88-89. Hedge against snow even if there’s windows of opportunity. 

Whats interesting is this feels no where near as warm as 88/89. Must be averages vs super warm days. We had many days that month working on new house rough ins wearing t shirts. I haven't felt that this month 

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It's this time of year some of the strongest storms with the most prolific snow amounts have occurred. Feb.1978, Mar. 1888. If that were to occur most of SNE would exceed climo. 
Less duration of snowpack OTG would still be considered a ratter, but in the record books as average if not above. 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone know what BDL and ORH lowest snowfall winter ever was? Are we on pace to smash record at both?

ORH is 21.2 for lowest all time. They are currently at 17.5” so it’s extremely unlikely they break the record. They’d have to set a new record for least snowfall beyond Feb 1st to get it. 
 

BDL was at 9.4” coming into today and their record is 14.7”…so unlikely for them too but more plausible than ORH. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is 21.2 for lowest all time. They are currently at 17.5” so it’s extremely unlikely they break the record. They’d have to set a new record for least snowfall beyond Feb 1st to get it. 
 

BDL was at 9.4” coming into today and their record is 14.7”…so unlikely for them too but more plausible than ORH. 

Did ORH have an inch today?

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we go through February snowless, then the futility records would get somewhat interesting but otherwise it’s not very compelling at the moment. 

 

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

With 10 weeks where we have had snow left. I mean we can pick up 4 inches in 2 hours 

Both of these.
 

 I mean it’s sucked ass for most in SNE so far. But with at least 6-7 weeks legitimately left to score snow, and as Ginx said perhaps even more than that, it’s a long way from any futility records on January 31st.  I mean 4-5” inches in 7 weeks is an easy lift, even in this wretched mess of a winter here. 

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1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Whats interesting is this feels no where near as warm as 88/89. Must be averages vs super warm days. We had many days that month working on new house rough ins wearing t shirts. I haven't felt that this month 

We're also 35 years older and feel the cold more. If I were 17 and being active outside in 50 degree weather I'd be wearing a t-shirt too.

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