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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured that card would get pulled, but you weren't the one I expected to pull it.

Okay...yea, new world...climate change. I now average 40".

Take the bet? 63" or greater IMBY next season. Given how much the climate has changed, its easy pickn's for you.

It seems like all or nothing seasons nowadays. If the pattern is favorable next year then you'll see a lot of snow. 

So I wouldn't take that bet for next season because I think it'll be the opposite of this one

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Just now, radarman said:

Th wheel has no memory as they say.  At any rate if even odds o/u are being offered you should probably use the median snowfall not the mean.  I wonder how it differs around SNE?  Not sure tbh

Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean.

For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2".

BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean.

 

If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1"

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean.

For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2".

BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean.

 

If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1"

Do you have the median/mean for BDL? 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It seems like all or nothing seasons nowadays. If the pattern is favorable next year then you'll see a lot of snow. 

So I wouldn't take that bet for next season because I think it'll be the opposite of this one

Totally agree that CC has lended itself to more dichotomous seasons in terms of snowfall.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Median for his area is prob not too different than mean, but once you get to lower snowfall areas near the south coast or on the Cape, it's probably noticeably less than the mean.

For ORH since 1950, the mean is about 68" with a median of 66.2".

BOS it is 43" vs a 44.2 mean.

 

If we only focus since 1990, the results are more skewed for BOS....median 39.9 vs mean of 48.2. ORH is still not too far off...mean is up to 72.1" but median is 70.1"

I feel like CC will cause more spread between the mean and median in the future.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I haven't had all or nothing seasons last several years. Been sort of consistent except 19-20 which was meh. However, my snowfall seemed to come in 3-5 week stretches vs spread out.

Yea, that has been another impact. You are right about that past several years, though....fairly consistent. Mine have been oiined between 44 and 51".

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do you have the median/mean for BDL? 

BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get

Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5"

Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4"

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like CC will cause more spread between the mean and median in the future.

It might...unless the boom or bust seasons are occurring in roughly equal numbers, then it won't change it too much.

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BDL is missing a lot of data between 1995-2002, but if we ignore those seasons, then I get

Since 1990 (27 seasons of clean data): mean 50.3" and median 45.5"

Since 1950 (67 seasons of clean data): mean 48.1 and median 46.4"

Thanks. I don’t think I average BDL, I probably mean/median between 40-45.

High bar last half decade.

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This season states...If the Icon says we snow and the GFS says no, then the GFS is correct. If the GFS says we snow and the Icon says we don't, then the Icon is correct. If the _____x____ says we snow and the ____y_____ says no, then the _______y_______ is correct.....Same old story this year, until it proves my if/thenish statement wrong.

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