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Jan 25 2023 Three-fer fer some...


HoarfrostHubb
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Here's a look at the GFS depiction of forcing as precip starts before this event winding down and the next one coming in. I think notably the jet streak is weaker, so you would anticipate the forcing to be weaker as well. But look at the orientation of the jet. It's subtle, but it's there. It's both farther north, and more east/west axis. This should produce a more uniform initial thump of snow than this current event. 

This suggests to me something a few inches less than what is out there right now, and shifted north closer to the Canadian border. 

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I think GYX wants to get people's attention after today.  Unusual to have an aggressive numbers before a watch or warning.  I am less optimistic after all of our recent luck.  So I say 6-8 for me and then dry slot or drizzle.

Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 31. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Snow before 4am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 7am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
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7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Going to be today in reverse, thump of snow changing to rain and a mess.

Yes, but the way I see it—get points on the board Wednesday, let the cold come next week, let the chips fall. We’re actually producing something now with a better look rising above the horizon.

Finally. 

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3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think GYX wants to get people's attention after today.  Unusual to have an aggressive numbers before a watch or warning.  I am less optimistic after all of our recent luck.  So I say 6-8 for me and then dry slot or drizzle.

Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 31. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Snow before 4am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Thursday
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 7am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Yea, that map is pretty wild. I was surprised to see an area of 12-18" extend down into southern Maine counties. Today they did mention cold air holding on not being modeled well in recent systems. I'd be surprised if we ended up with 8-12". 

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