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February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???


Carvers Gap
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17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

GFS is at it again. :

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611f2e98f602b71ac7e7a

 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611f38e3a37a269dba62d

 

nothing to get too excited about just yet, still a long ways out. That would be a full split at 10mb though. 

 

JB mentioned it yesterday.   He said it reminded him of 2018.  Man, nothing like a good strat split to end the month and extend winter into April.  LOL.  I am going to put up my hoop house this week just so I can hear the strat crackle.  

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48 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Yea looks like area wide we may not be done with winter 

It is going to likely get warm - almost a certainty.  The trick is can we score a snowfall during a warm-up.  February is the kind of month where that can happen.  Absolutely no promises on my part...this is a stretch, but still interesting.

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No split on the GFS strat this AM, but a whale of a warming.

VATizwB.png

 

I hate to say it for our spring, but I think its coming this time. The last attempt weakened it pretty good at 10mb.

Here is the 3D vortex back in December:

giphy.gif

 

 

Here is what it looks like now:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118a5f842c8076b45f7d

 

The trouble with all this is that the last attempt also seems to have strengthened it in the lower levels. Note the sort of flip that has happened with the 3D vortex. In Dec it was larger up top and smaller on the bottom. Now that has reversed. So if a SSW happens with what the GFS is depicting, it would likely be a top down type that would take 3 weeks or so to have much effect on us. The "we're due" weenie index would suggest one of these should help us after the past 3 didn't. The cynical Holston mind would suggest "at least this might keep us out of a bad la Nina severe season, lol. 

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12 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I've been so focused on this week's weather, I haven't been paying attention to the long-term. Seems like we're set for a warm rest of the month before one last winter hurrah just in time for spring? 

That sound about right.  I am watching the timeframe of Feb11-14 as a cold front(timing TBD) is rolling under that big ridge.  It would be thread the needle, but is the only game in town after the ice storm.

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23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The above temp anomaly was from 6z today. Looking back at 0z, we still had a split depicted again at 50 and 10 mb, so the 3D vortex rendering should look pretty cool tomorrow. That site updates once a day for the 3D vortex with the previous day's oz data.

Here is the wacky depiction from Feb 2 0z run:

bFoUc3m.png

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It has been a while since the end of Feb and beginning of March were decent.  Kind of an MJO nugget this AM, many models are trying to race through warm phases at low amplitude and cut quickly to 7/8.  Even the 6z GEFS is not overly warm after d10(big warmup prior to that).  Maybe this is the year where we see 1-2 more windows in the valleys after Feb 20?  For your troubles....

Screen_Shot_2023-02-03_at_8.53.06_AM.png

 

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4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Mid February has always been a prime time for snowstorms in our area. Dkw, probably just luck of the draw over a climatological period. 

Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th.  If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though.  We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).  

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17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th.  If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though.  We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).  

Yeah, hopefully that'll be the case. If blocking can set up during the favorable MJO Phases I think it will pay off this time. Some signs of this happening along with the PNA cooperating. 

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12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th.  If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though.  We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well).  

Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS

The euro seems to be playing catch-up all the way around lately. At least that is what is has seemed like lately.

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4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Outbreak in 2011 we didnt have to worry about the SPV

weatheriscool-com-cgi-bin-plume6010-py (1).png

Only concern I have is we will probably get a SSW but if it happens later rather than sooner, cold air will still be tough due to too late in season and will limit severe weather chances also. BTW, the ice event was fun, but my area missed out on most of it unfortunately 

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