Silas Lang Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Great insight. For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville. I am getting ready to send one to UT next year. I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s. Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV. Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville. Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation. Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring. Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate. The rain shadow up here is what is the worst. Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years. Even in TRI there is some variety in climate. It always seemed Kingsport and Bristol did better with the big storms, and JC was better with NWF and snow shower like setups. I have wonderful memories of randomly getting hammered with a snow shower and picking up an inch of snow while in JC. Best location I have lived in for those types of events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 For E TN and W NC, there is still some passing interest in the system on Feb 6. Interestingly, when we first starting this forum, Memphis rarely had any opportunities at anything frozen outside of hail. For the second time in three years, an ice storm warning has been posted for the western areas of the forum. I think it is a textbook example of La Nina climatology. I certainly see aspects of El Nino starting to take over, but western areas of the forum getting wintry precip such as ice is La Nina. In the LR, the longwave pattern still looks warm after the 10th(maybe even earlier than that). However, details matter. The 6z GFS portrays a patterns where 2-3 storms press the boundary eastward and cause a system or two to take the low road during the middle of that warm-up. There is plenty of cold air in Canada by that time, so a couple of storms pressing the boundary is a plausible scenario. Again, we are just looking for windows for winter. If Nino is legit taking over, we should see weakness(BN heights) in the SE as a steady pattern. Not sure we are there yet, but that pattern on the GFS is close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 Once reason people like El Nino winters is that the STJ is very active. And one can see that on LR modeling. They aren't necessarily super cold, but active. So, in a sense, the hitter gets a bunch of pitches - bad pitches but lots of them. Whereas, La Nina winters have far fewer pitches, but many are over the plate early in the count. When I look a the LR pattern (warm for sure), the STJ is just ripping. There is enough cold to our north for a system to cut under us and tap it. Does it happen? IDK, but it is plausible w/ the very short wavelengths. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I'm kind of surprised that we've not seen an all out torch w/ SE ridge yet in the long range. I expected it to be from maybe the 6th - 22nd based on the cycle we've been in since fall. But it seems like it keeps getting pushed back a bit and that was why I posted the 28th for the next colder cycle. Even though the SOI has been up and down daily, the 30 day trend has been downward: It was up and up through most of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I think Carver's probably answered some of my questions regarding the SE ridge with his post, I was typing it as he was posting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Stole this from the MA and thought it was interesting regarding La Nina from the NWS Mount Holly/ Philadelphia Source: https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory Ah yes the Aleutian Low, a popular feature in La Ninas, lol. Seriously though, I thought La Nina's were remarkable for Aleutian ridging. TBH if you just showed me that H5 anomaly map and asked me if we were in a Nina or a Nino, I would say Nino. I think the huge anomalies in late December may be skewing it a bit: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 The quintessential La Nina pattern signal is heavy snows in Montana, Wyoming, and the Mountain West....and a very hostile Pacific for eastern NA in regards to snow during Jan/Feb. We have had all of that in spades. Nina winters also begin very cold and often end warm. Nov/Dec were decent months temp wise...but early snows at lower elevations are not common prior to Christmas regardless of ENSO state. The dominant storm track has been a cutter, and that is definitely La Nina....textbook La Nina. The lack of coastal storms is another signal for La Nina. As for the Aleutian low....I have seen it in place more in LR modeling than in actuality. That last 500mb map actually has an Aleutian HP paired w/ a -NAO(which saved us). I think right now, we are in transition in terms of ENSO, but La Nina is dominating the storm track. The West is just getting pounded w/ snow. They had to shut down Teton Pass over the weekend. That might sound like a big deal, but the folks who work in Jackson...a lot of them live in Driggs, Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I guess the point of my post was more wrt the Aleutian low. Like you I really don’t remember seeing one consistently. I do think the big NAO in Dec is skewing that mean that Mt Holly posted. Feels like it’s been pretty +ve for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I guess the point of my post was more wrt the Aleutian low. Like you I really don’t remember seeing one consistently. I do think the big NAO in Dec is skewing that mean that Mt Holly posted. Feels like it’s been pretty +ve for a while now. There are definitely some oddities to the pattern...the NAO connecting to the eastern ridge for a time was one for me. That isn’t unprecedented, but it was odd. Yeah, I was just spitballing myself. So an Aleutian low should produce HP in the eastern GoA, right? ...which is an EPO ridge. Boone did mention early on that the low around Alaska was a problem. I think a hostile PAC in combo with a SER is just part and parcel Niña climatology for Jan/Feb. I don’t have an answer for most of that. Good thought provoking set of posts.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 This weekend & next week temp wise looks very pleasant. The warmup is real no doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 So, just for folks working back though these threads during later years(me included), ice storm warnings envelope west TN and WAAs extend to the eastern Plateau, Arkansas, northern MS, KY, and SW VA. Models are trending colder with the storm. The cold air is pressing vs getting warmer. There is a separate thread regarding this winter weather event. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 CMC has really been trying to create a storm at 240 hrs on some of its recent runs. Alas it is always at hr 240. But it has been consistent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: CMC has really been trying to create a storm at 240 hrs on some of its recent runs. Alas it is always at hr 240. But it has been consistent. The CMC really won the model wars on the current temps. Whatever the CMC is showing temp wise should be taken pretty seriously. GFS was a close second. Euro is completely lost on cold air. Question I have is what is the latest on the MJO? Does it cycle back to cold phases or stay in warm phases? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: The CMC really won the model wars on the current temps. Whatever the CMC is showing temp wise should be taken pretty seriously. GFS was a close second. Euro is completely lost on cold air. Question I have is what is the latest on the MJO? Does it cycle back to cold phases or stay in warm phases? I would give it about a 75% of doing a full rotation through the warm phases at relatively low amplitude and be back in the cold phases by the last week of the month. Some plots take it into 4 and then it goes into the COD. But given the actual precip plumes in Indonesia....the warm phase rotation looks likely. Feb10-24 for that roughly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I would give it about a 75% of doing a full rotation through the warm phases at relatively low amplitude and be back in the cold phases by the last week of the month. Some plots take it into 4 and then it goes into the COD. But given the actual precip plumes in Indonesia....the warm phase rotation looks likely. Feb10-24 for that roughly. Yikes. That’s not good. Meaning cold spring with cold rains. We need to break this cycle of cold springs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: Yikes. That’s not good. Meaning cold spring with cold rains. We need to break this cycle of cold springs. I think spring will be ok. Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring. The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those). About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down! LOL. Hope the soccer is going well! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 I think spring will be ok. Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring. The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those). About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down! LOL. Hope the soccer is going well!We will be disappointed regardless but we kinda knew or had a good idea that winter could be a dud. The lack of opportunities is kinda surprising to me though. To this point we really haven’t been all that close to sniffing on one. We swing and miss on some around here but we haven’t really seen a pitch yet. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 They hit -44F south of Cokeville, WY, this morning and -35F in Afton, WY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 Textbook La Nina 90d temp anomaly signature. The Mountain West temps are well below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think spring will be ok. Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring. The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those). About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down! LOL. Hope the soccer is going well! Thanks Carver. Well soccer starts big this coming weekend in Gatlinburg with it being a college showcase. Supposed to be 52-54 Sunny both days! Can not ask for better soccer wx. Though the early game on Sat. morning @ 7:30 will be quiet chilly! We have our portable heater ready & battery operated hand warmers. These next 2 years are big for my daughter as starting in July college coaches can start contacting here. She has had some look at her recruiting page. She wants to play college at a smaller school. Though if Alabama offered her she would say YES! Lol. I know I’m going to get stoned for saying that! As for a warmer spring I say bring it! I will start building my ark for next Nino winter like you advised in your earlier post! Lol! I think in 5-6 months I can have it done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: Thanks Carver. Well soccer starts big this coming weekend in Gatlinburg with it being a college showcase. Supposed to be 52-54 Sunny both days! Can not ask for better soccer wx. Though the early game on Sat. morning @ 7:30 will be quiet chilly! We have our portable heater ready & battery operated hand warmers. These next 2 years are big for my daughter as starting in July college coaches can start contacting here. She has had some look at her recruiting page. She wants to play college at a smaller school. Though if Alabama offered her she would say YES! Lol. I know I’m going to get stoned for saying that! As for a warmer spring I say bring it! I will start building my ark for next Nino winter like you advised in your earlier post! Lol! I think in 5-6 months I can have it done! Gopher wood supply chain issues. Better stock up now! And that is great to hear! Hey, if Alabama wants to pay the bills, I think that is great! My former grocery bagger was telling me that his wife used to have a little heater they took to practices and games for early season baseball. They set their blanket on fire! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Low res NAM for the win. Am I desperate? Maybe. Will it happen nope. it pulls some cold air down the back spine of the Apps. Interesting evolution. Probably WAY overdone. probaly a resolution issue. 3km is actually great for areas above 3000'. But need some colder air for lower regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 the soundings look ok even for the lower elevations at least on the NAM: that one is over approx. Greeneville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Soundings look ok on the RGEM too, at least for snow, but I guess the question is more of how suppressed will it be? Is this a case where NW precip shield is under modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Soundings look ok on the RGEM too, at least for snow, but I guess the question is more of how suppressed will it be? Is this a case where NW precip shield is under modeled? Yeah, I am curious too. I looked at the upper air temp maps, and they look pretty good for everyone, but there must be a warm layer for the valley. Don't have access at the moment, but could you put up a sounding for Knoxville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, I am curious too. I looked at the upper air temp maps, and they look pretty good for everyone, but there must be a warm layer for the valley. Don't have access at the moment, but could you put up a sounding for Knoxville? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 I am mildly interested in the timeframe around Feb 11th. That is a possible seasonal cold front. Most runs have been not had much cyclogenesis along the front...but never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I am mildly interested in the timeframe around Feb 11th. That is a possible seasonal cold front. Most runs have been not had much cyclogenesis along the front...but never know. Looks like at the least the active pattern will remain, like you have said before, will not take much to get some amplification and get something to develop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: Looks like at the least the active pattern will remain, like you have said before, will not take much to get some amplification and get something to develop I mean it is going to very likely get warm. But a cold front is pretty much our best shot during a warm pattern. I suspect it will be marginal at best, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 The 12z GEFS shows the trough amplification. The EPS shows a weakness. In the force that slips beneath our latitude on the 11th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now