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February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???


Carvers Gap
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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

For me, this winter is a carbon copy of the last three.  Chances during December along w/ severe cold.  Then, it was a battle from that point onward, but not without opportunities.   I think for folks west of the Plateau, this winter (still been better than mine) has been similar to what E TN has seen for three straight seasons.  That may be why E TN folks are somewhat apathetic to warmer temps and fewer chances.  

Yeah, for this reason I am about to punt next Tuesday's event for the East. West has the best chance of scoring! 

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In my opinion which isn’t much, things right now look like west and middle Tennessee’s best chance at winter weather is Tuesday. After that rain Sunday it looks like it may be cold enough for a decent window of frozen on Tuesday. The next slug of moisture for Wednesday and wednesday night looks a little warm right now. Freezing line and frozen precip looks just north of Ohio River area. Of course with arctic boundaries at 4-5 days away things can still change. 

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The 18z GFS held serve w/ a light band of snow w/ one of the waves(same one it has had for several runs).  It is maybe 25mi south of where it was at 12z.  Generally looks like a band of 1-3" of snow.  If that falls during the day, probably a dusting.  If it falls at night, accumulations are possible.  I haven't looked at the time of day.

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There is a bit of a bonus window after 200+.  All deterministic models now show the storm track south of us.  I still think it is gonna get plenty warm mid month, but their might be couple of bonus days between Feb4-6.  I don't think we hit the warm button until after the 10th, then we are gonna have some springlike temps before likely falling back to earth later in the month.

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1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Looking like a western TN even this go round - on a positive note, glad to see regular moisture though as we head into Spring. Last Spring and Summer were too too dry in Middle TN 

The 12z RGEM and 12z GFS both have an event west of the Plateau...that includes portions of middle TN and most of west TN.  The RGEM is at range so TIFWIW.  That would include multiple waves.

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Keeping an eye right around the 189hr mark.  Long way out there, but modeling has been showing a slp scooting under us and up the coast.  Only watching storm tracks for now.  It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS.  That GFS run had 7-15" of snow for the TRI area.  OBVIOUSLY, that is way out there, but just something to watch.

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Keeping an eye right around the 189hr mark.  Long way out there, but modeling has been showing a slp scooting under us and up the coast.  Only watching storm tracks for now.  It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS.  That GFS run had 7-15" of snow for the TRI area.  OBVIOUSLY, that is way out there, but just something to watch.

We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba.


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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:


We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba.


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I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas.  We need that block to get overrunning in E TN.  Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years.  They broke the snow drought there.  E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not.  In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology.  February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good.  The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY.  Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think.   Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast.  I simply used ENSO climatology.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas.  We need that block to get overrunning in E TN.  Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years.  They broke the snow drought there.  E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not.  In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology.  February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good.  The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY.  Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think.   Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast.  I simply used ENSO climatology.

We were fortunate here to do good Winter before last with right at 30 inches of Snow. Last year wasn't too good but, alright considering Nina and thanks to the March Storm.

     This Winter so far has only produced 2.4" Total. So, barring a major storm or something unforseen or unexpected, another below average Snow Season. 

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3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba.


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Yeah, it really is causing alot of anguish among Snow lovers . 

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