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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


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11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The timing of the northern stream and southern stream features remind me of my old ‘73 Nova. All out of whack.

Yea, I think that late week system needs to speed up or it's just going to get suppressed OTS as modeled with very little NS interaction.  Or maybe that midweek wave needs to be the main one before the cold/dry settles in.

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One of the things I hope this probabilities calculation will help with is to dispel the perception the NWP is constantly “teasing” is with predicting snow. Sometimes it does. It’s certainly not perfect. But more often what I see is a situation where maybe a run or two of one op model shows snow over a day or two but it’s never the preponderance of evidence. But we give that gfs rub that shows a snowstorm way more attention than the other guidance that doesn’t. 
 

Or the eps might for a couple runs look snowy but the gefs and geps isn’t. Or people see a 3.5” snow mean and thing the guidance is saying they think we will get 3.5”. That’s not what a mean means. Lol. If the mean is 3.5” but the probability of snow is 40% it’s actually saying we probably won’t get anything.  
 

I hope this gives a better indication of what the guidance actually thinks our chances of snow are.  At no point during this window we’re tracking was the chance of 1” higher than ~50% or the chance of 3” above 30%. 
 

Guidance never teased us. It always even from 12 days out was saying we had a chance at 1-2” somewhere in our area with wave 1 and anything else was a super long shot. That’s still where we are now. 

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I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please.


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It is interesting to see the GFS/Euro focus on the southern part of the area, while the ICON RGEM and Canadian focus things further north. Euro plops a HP in Ohio, which appears to push the wave south.

I’m just as snow hungry as the next weenie, but being on the wrong side of a Euro/GFS vs. RGEM/Icon/CMC fight is probably not the place we want to be. NAM is a sheered out mess too.


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12z CMC would be a nice hit on late Sunday into early Monday between i81 and i95 corridors
 
 
 

That low gets to 970mb just NE of the benchmark with precip spanning from Maine to NC. Precip / temp details aside, that’s an impressive storm.

If there was a high to the north to supply cold air and slow things down a bit… WOOF. It’s a quick mover, which limits its upside, but it packs a nice punch.


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