Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

From LWX:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the
hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More
specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to
the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance
which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the
cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At
this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these
streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter
weather threat.

 

You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

From LWX:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the
hemispheric pattern does not appreciably change. More
specifically, this features an upper ridge over the eastern
Pacific, another high near the Bahamas, and a deep upper low to
the north of Hudson Bay. Split flow is evident in the guidance
which carry waves across the western U.S. as well as within the
cyclonic longwave flow regime over the central/eastern U.S. At
this juncture, there is little to no interactions with these
streams which is often the recipe for a more pronounced winter
weather threat.

 

You can tell that LWX is a little baffled at how this winter is going, huh?

that was written for the MA forum to let us know find something else to do next 10 days or so...but just on official letterhead

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m not even looking at op runs beyond 7 days. Ensembles only. And GEFS hasn’t changed much at all from run to run. 

Oh I know, but if we're tracking blues this far out, it's only fair.  I checked the GEFS as well and noticed it was the same look...for better or worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

in this type of gradient pattern, we could either get either of these solutions. there really isn't any kind of way to figure out which is going to happen based off of OP runs, so take them with a grain of salt for the time being and we'll see how things clear up over the next several days

this is still the best window we've had with a TON of available cold in SE Canada and a bunch of shortwaves. this period could be prolific, or it could absolutely suck. keep your mind open 

 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.thumb.png.5a5c2880edecaeb51c28ffd3e071f7ae.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.thumb.png.dd912ef7b11a3e408090e830fe1e087e.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I look at them, but only for the laughs.

There's value in seeing if any type of wave is in sight.  If there was no storm system, then it really doesn't matter what kind of look we have.  I agree with the general thesis lately that a simple W-E gradient/overrunning pattern is probably what we need at this point...especially since we're in prime climo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Gotta love it!

WEATHER53's "old-fashioned" way of forecasting is in the mud.

HP is always on the move with progressive flow. That thing largely owes its existence to confluence from the strong TPV lobe rotating through, and there is nothing to slow its progress either. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I just can't really count this out from a synoptic perspective

split flow, TPV lobes in SE Canada providing an extremely cold source region, a boundary nearby... there should be chances here for legit overrunning

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom_1day-5425600.thumb.png.2034e9a526130060093bde3c2b169c25.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z200_speed-5468800.thumb.png.50b853ea193d8a7c0109eeb385c69e2f.png

Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...