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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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56 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame.

Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs.

Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here.

Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models.

4d523d5c109aa62ad0b59b701987a78b.jpg


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It's hard to say if the GFS is "rushing" things, but yeah that period in early-mid February may well have legs.  I do remember the models have been advertising a similar kind of overrunning attacking the pressing cold air starting sometime about the very end of this month into the first couple of days of February.  Maybe it was last week's runs?  There was a similar such event as what the 18Z GFS is now showing, just earlier (end of Jan.).  And that kind of scenario has shown up on various days in this same general time frame.  It may have gotten pushed back from last day or two of January but that signal has appeared.

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4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS on February 4.  Find the puffy coat, and firewood….throw in the windchill…. 

AC39F279-E5FE-425A-86DD-DA7B7CC72149.png

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Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC.  Absolutely!  LOL!!  It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015.  Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario.  But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level.

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10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC.  Absolutely!  LOL!!  It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015.  Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario.  But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level.

Ha Was thinking the same...If that's the fantasy range cold we're starting at...you'd think that could be a signal for I don't know...not 33 degrees or higher? :lol: And now we wait to see if the general idea holds...

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18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, I totally see -10F temperatures in and around DC.  Absolutely!  LOL!!  It would be colder than what we got in the extremely frigid Februarys of 2007 and 2015.  Don't see us greatly exceeding that in almost any scenario.  But all the same, the signal for very cold air is there, just probably not at that level.

No way DCA verifies anywhere close to that. There's a reason that the majority of all the DC winter record lows are from 90+ years ago. The site of that station simply won't allow for it, but if we get decent snowcover and relatively calm winds, it could at least threaten record lows there.

But get a little bit outside the real UHI and we could see some negative temps if it all comes together.

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

No way DCA verifies anywhere close to that. There's a reason that the majority of all the DC winter record lows are from 90+ years ago. The site of that station simply won't allow for it, but if we get decent snowcover and relatively calm winds, it could at least threaten record lows there.

But get a little bit outside the real UHI and we could see some negative temps if it all comes together.

Of course.  I was being sarcastic with my comment.  In the ~22 years that I've been in this area, there hasn't been a below zero temperature in the immediate metro area in the places I've lived.  Maybe close...single digits...but not below zero.  And like I said, looking back at Feb. 2007 and Feb. 2015...two of the coldest months in that time...we didn't get there (at least around DCA where I was).  But yes, if that "signal" of extreme temperatures is real, we could well see some bitter cold all the same and threaten record lows as you say.  And if there is any decent snow pack, outlying areas surely could dip into the negatives.  I mean, look at Christmas weekend, how cold it got, and not even a coating of snow cover anywhere near here.

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I obviously hope 18z GFS is sniffing something other than glue. There are a few hits on ensembles for same time frame.

Still, it could be rushing things, and the period Feb 4-10 still has legs.

Hope is something can undercut the cold dome here.

Though, maybe we get lucky and GFS is picking up on something before other models.

4d523d5c109aa62ad0b59b701987a78b.jpg


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It’s Feb before DC and Balt get any snow and it’s “rushing” things. God help us if it ever takes it’s time. 

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1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

If the temperature ever reaches -6 degrees in Bowie, MD I will buy every member of this subforum a beer. I’m not joking.

I’ll hold you to it. You can’t go wrong with sending me a belgian dubbel or better yet, a quadrupel. 

I’m a reasonable man - I accept mail deliveries. 

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not.

He was backtracking on his flamethrower prediction for Feb. just a few days ago when there was model consensus for SSW event. He is usually very good though.  

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not.

he got into it with some NE snow weenies earlier this season.  I hope that is not coloring his analysis here, but I say this as someone who spent years mostly participating in the NYC sub - with some folks it's just best to ignore them.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What's his issue this season, anyway? He's usually so knowledgeable but it's being clouded by a regular dose of trolling so ya don't know if he's a bit biased or not.

After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative.  In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter.  So he's been objectively correct.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

After getting somewhat excited in December (like many of us) he has been relentlessly negative.  In his defense it's been a relentlessly negative winter.  So he's been objectively correct.

Edit: At least so far.  I hope he faceplants hard in February but I still give it a better than even chance of the SSW effects going somewhere else and leaving us toast with our old friend the SER.

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