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January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility


TalcottWx
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I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

32.7 at home...had risen to about 33.3.

Different world here at work in Chelsea....barren of snow, save for a few meager piles that scream "We have a contract and needed an excuse to use the plow for once".

Guessing still about a 4" soggy pack at home with still a decent amount on trees.

Yep. Sad times.

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More often then not.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
735 PM Update...
Not much to update at this hour... have simply loaded in
observations and blended into the forecast. As usual, the
interior is holding onto cold air better than any model
predicted, so have kept temps below freezing for the most part
where they are now. According to modeled thermal profiles...
right about now is the greatest extent of rain and mixed
precipitation. Now that low pressure is entering the Gulf of
Maine, cold advection will bring thermal profiles back below
freezing in the coming hours.
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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

33.1 as it slowly slides down . Seems like 11AM or so for the flip 

I think you may flip sooner than 11:00. My gut is you may be flipped to snow around 10:00 10:30. That line is falling pretty much to the south and east pretty quickly when I look over to the west side of Connecticut. Once that new batch starts coming in, that Ryan's going to change quickly to snow

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

Agree!!..

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Decided at 630am to head out to breakfast. Went north to the Putney diner. The flip to snow happened at the vt line, and by the time we were heading home, we saw trees down, branches snapping. Got off at exit 2 to hit the vt County deli and heard a couple of shotgun blasts in the woods.

The trees are struggling with this.

Time to shovel. Lol

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I think you may flip sooner than 11:00. My gut is you may be flipped to snow around 10:00 10:30. That line is falling pretty much to the south and east pretty quickly when I look over to the west side of Connecticut. Once that new batch starts coming in, that Ryan's going to change quickly to snow

Could be. Down to 32.9

Would like to see radar look a little better to the SW though 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be. Down to 32.9

Would like to see radar look a little better to the SW though 

I think the better forcing is north for awhile until it wraps up. But you want to see a nice slug of echoes vs banded stuff. HRRR tries to wrap it up good this aftn so we shall see. 35.6 here now.

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I get the impression looking at rad trends like this phase 2 might be oversold a bit for this afternoon.

Guess we'll have to now cast our way to either glory, or falling back to seasonal trend of ever diminishing returns ... which this latter has about a 10-0 record ...  

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I cannot help but feel like last night would have been more of a snow transitioning to ice thing rather than a snow to 32.4 one, for the larger part of the interior eastern SNE region (... say N of the Pike/ W of 495) if this were 30 years ago - given the same synoptic footprint. 

Our winds here in N Middlesex CO have increased since 4 am, from the NNE, from a region of 30 F ... yet the temperature continues to rise.  This is most likely from conduction as it's pretty damn warm at 850. The tucking flow at the bottom is not sufficient to compensate.  interesting.

there are strange events that take place while no one is looking, aspects that hearken to changing times. 

once, what was marginal is no longer it seems....Doesn't mean it will be this way all of the time, just more often than not. I always enjoyed the rain to snow events, staring at an evergreen in the distance, hoping to catch mangled flakes mixing in. Sitting in a car, watching the rain begin to splatter, knowing the the changeover was coming! Hope to see that down here today, but the temp continues to increase here, now 37.8° No way we are dropping 5 degrees without some heavy bands moving through later.

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