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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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25 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

You can’t find the website? :P

But of course, ratios are much lower now. Still, point stands…overnight snows were greater than 10:1. 

Didn't have time to look then.  Had seen some LSRs with snow amounts but not liquid equivalent.

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4 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Bust here in Toledo with 3" so far.  Looking like maybe another inch.  Antecedent conditions were just a killer plus sitting at 33 degrees for the entire event.  Hard to overcome a January like we had.  

Short term models yesterday were first to have the better bands just to the nw of toledo. Just a tough location for bigger snows.

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Just now, Powerball said:

Looking at posts on Twitter, roads in/around Detroit don't seem to be as bad as you'd expect.

That's perhaps the saving grace with temps around 32-33*F.

Yes! I was out and roads are slushy but the salt has kept the roads warm and it hits and melts. The sub roads are getting pretty tricky. It is very beautiful out.

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20 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Bust here in Toledo with 3" so far.  Looking like maybe another inch.  Antecedent conditions were just a killer plus sitting at 33 degrees for the entire event.  Hard to overcome a January like we had.  

Same here, Kingsville, Ontario.  Snowing hard but too warm.  3-4 will max this storm out.  Very far from 6-8

 

 

 

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IWX is going all-in on the lake-effect tonight/tomorrow:

EDIT: I assume "this evening" refers to Thursday evening in the advisory text. Also, a little surprised they didn't just upgrade to a warning based on an additional 5 to 8 in the forecast. I'll have to dig into the AFD. 

Elkhart-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-
Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Michigan City,
La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville,
Granger, North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Dowagiac,
Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph,
Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo, Stevensville,
and Berrien Springs
221 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 /121 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM
CST/ FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and then lake effect snow expected. An additional 5
  to 8 inches of snowfall is expected into this evening totalling
  6 to 12 inches for the entire event.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the evening and then morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...System snow is expected to continue into
  the afternoon before dissipating this evening. Lake effect snow
  is expected to take over 3 to 6 hours later and continue
  through much of Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.
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Felt like this event exceeded our low expectations for northern Illinois. Some positive vibes as we kick off this active stretch.

The higher ratios early this morning were interesting, because the snow definitely didn't feel light and fluffy when shoveling this morning. It also wasn't true cement though.

We had strong omega well aligned with the DGZ, and steep lapse rates above the DGZ during the heaviest snowfall rates. The lift was associated with an upper jet streak and a mid-level fgen circulation. At onset last night, flake size was small, as the strongest lift was above the DGZ. A couple hours later, we had good alignment, and flake size improved, supporting the at or above climo ratios, despite surface temperatures hovering near freezing.

This was yet another example of the challenge of snow ratio forecasting. Even if you have somewhat marginal temps, the sounding will often be a bigger driver of the ratios (Saturday night-Sunday was another example of higher than expected ratios). The Cobb output can help in these setups, vs. the Kuchera actually being too low. 10:1 maps appeared they did well enough for this event since they were higher than the Kuchera ratios.

Of course once temps warmed and rates diminished late this morning and this afternoon, we've had essentially white rain, so the effective ratios are well below the Kuchera.



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