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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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OFC. Ordered up by the secret magnet keeper himself

DTX

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.
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12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

OFC. Ordered up by the secret magnet keeper himself

DTX

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

Rap/hhr steady with bringing the high totals to atleast m59.

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The hi-res models are really barking that the deformation band that cranks from parts of central and eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio, southeast Ohio, and southern Ontario during the day Wednesday will pack 1-2" per hour rates, with forecast soundings that support heavy snow with large flakes:

snowfall_001h_prob01_ne.f01700.thumb.png.2cf4713c7a531c4dedec6b586faa8837.png

530617256_snowfall_001h_prob02_ne.f01700(1).thumb.png.e11c062808f3b1698b03193a1877799b.png

snowfall_024h_prob_series_ne.f02400.thumb.png.58d5ed66bdc31d1f81b74bda99c7d30b.png

1782802386_download(35).thumb.png.393768f0f485f4a8999f258eb4d10e16.png

The hi-res model consistency (and slight ramp up this run) of the deformation band placement and potential for over 6" with it has been relatively impressive, so we'll see if they're sniffing something out.

It's worth noting that the synoptics behind this are nuts:

hrrr_f16.thumb.png.627e223f80bf64a85ce9f1b0f10bde11.png

Strong divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave, with a zone of strong warm air advection and low to mid-level frontogenesis beneath this to help squeeze out precipitation:

1550347554_hrrr_f16(1).thumb.png.8bdbb688eeb4386c2879358dccde5007.png

725459052_HRRRcross.thumb.png.2bd3c3206a790912aa4b42eb9f0bdbdc.png

 

Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above freezing for most of this snow so ratios won't be great, but heavy snow rates with large flakes are likely to occur in any mesoscale banding that develops within the broader deformation zone on Wednesday. 

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38 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

OFC. Ordered up by the secret magnet keeper himself

DTX

After careful deliberation, have opted to transition the Winter
Storm Watch into the Winter Storm Warning for the 3 counties in far
southeast Michigan. The highest accumulations seem most likely
nearer the MI/IN/OH state line, but the trajectory of the system
also puts downriver locations such as Wyandotte into a favorable
zone for a slightly extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall. A
Winter Weather Advisory will be issued on north into the I-69
corridor angling northeast into the Thumb where some lake
enhancement will also come into play late in the day Wednesday.

I saw that lol

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1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

Already seeing some color on the county travel hazards map for Indiana. Allen county ( Ft. Wayne) and Hamilton county (northside of Indianapolis), are already under a travel watch. I guess some EMS managers are being proactive seeing how the snow has not even started yet.

I've been out driving and walking a limping dog the last few hours (I live in the sticks) and its probably for black ice.   The weekend stuff finished melting this afternoon but its been extremely damp out there all day and evening. We had maybe 2 hours of sun today, not near enough to dry secondary roads completely especially with the dews we had today.  I can attest that about an hour ago there was suddenly an invisible glaze on the road as I slid right through a stop sign.  About busted my ass a few times walking.  Its like an eggshell thin layer and its patchy and kinda scares you to be honest lol. 

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

The hi-res models are really barking that the deformation band that cranks from parts of central and eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio, southeast Ohio, and southern Ontario during the day Wednesday will pack 1-2" per hour rates, with forecast soundings that support heavy snow with large flakes:

snowfall_001h_prob01_ne.f01700.thumb.png.2cf4713c7a531c4dedec6b586faa8837.png

530617256_snowfall_001h_prob02_ne.f01700(1).thumb.png.e11c062808f3b1698b03193a1877799b.png

snowfall_024h_prob_series_ne.f02400.thumb.png.58d5ed66bdc31d1f81b74bda99c7d30b.png

1782802386_download(35).thumb.png.393768f0f485f4a8999f258eb4d10e16.png

The hi-res model consistency (and slight ramp up this run) of the deformation band placement and potential for over 6" with it has been relatively impressive, so we'll see if they're sniffing something out.

It's worth noting that the synoptics behind this are nuts:

hrrr_f16.thumb.png.627e223f80bf64a85ce9f1b0f10bde11.png

Strong divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave, with a zone of strong warm air advection and low to mid-level frontogenesis beneath this to help squeeze out precipitation:

1550347554_hrrr_f16(1).thumb.png.8bdbb688eeb4386c2879358dccde5007.png

725459052_HRRRcross.thumb.png.2bd3c3206a790912aa4b42eb9f0bdbdc.png

 

Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above freezing for most of this snow so ratios won't be great, but heavy snow rates with large flakes are likely to occur in any mesoscale banding that develops within the broader deformation zone on Wednesday. 

This is my favorite post ever.

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mcd0102.gif

 Mesoscale Discussion 0102
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

   Areas affected...southern portions of IL...IN...and OH

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 250544Z - 251145Z

   SUMMARY...Broad precipitation will continue to overspread the region
   from around 06-12z. Localized heavy snowfall rates greater than
   1"/hr will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...The low-level precipitation field continues to expand
   in advance of a negatively tilted upper-level trough ejecting over
   the central CONUS. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr have been reported from
   eastern OK northeastward through southeastern MO, and in some areas
   localized snowfall rates around 2"/hr have been observed. The broad
   precipitation band responsible for these snowfall rates continues to
   translate northeastward in tandem with 700-mb frontogenesis and
   mesoscale isentropic ascent. These features are expected to persist
   for the next several hours and produce 1"/hr snowfall rates through
   12z, generally advancing from west to east across the outlined area.
   Snowfall rates of 2"/hr or greater will be possible in localized
   areas where enhanced forcing overlaps non-zero potential buoyancy
   (10-20 J/kg MUCAPE) in the dendritic growth zone.

   ..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   ILX...LSX...
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And so it begins, parachutes sighted.  Deck covered in about 10 min.  This is a bit of a rare system for us if the heavy snow rates being forecast pan out later this morning.  We usually need these systems to come through at night (unless we're in early Feb arctic mode) or we lose a lot to liquid.  We dont get to see sustained 1-2in/hr rates in the daytime around here very often.  Looking forward to it hopefully.  Good luck to all :weenie:

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3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I gotta drive to Howell for my work just for them to send us all home by 9am looking forward to this one!

Nice banding already over the area. Dtx upgraded a few to warnings which was warranted, but still surprised and unlike them to be prepared for once. Gonna rip for 6 or so hours later. Wish I was home for it but told myself it's gotta be a foot for me to hop on a plane and leave paradise. Y'all enjoy it, might be the only decent event of the winter. Definitely the first one in years.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Nice banding already over the area. Dtx upgraded a few to warnings which was warranted, but still surprised and unlike them to be prepared for once. Gonna rip for 6 or so hours later. Wish I was home for it. Y'all enjoy it, might be the only decent event of the winter. Definitely the first one in years.

Yeah I want to drive the 40 or so miles home when I’m not in the defo band. We shall see what these next couple weeks look like for DTW

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37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Overperforming so far imby, sticking to all surfaces 

LOT on it per usual:

BEEN CRANKING OUT SOME PRETTY DECENT SNOWFALL STRADDLING THE   
I-80/88 CORRIDORS. WE'RE SITTING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SINCE   
MIDNIGHT AT OUR OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE, WITH SNOWFLAKE QUALITY   
IMPROVING A GOOD DEAL OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO (THEY WERE FAIRLY   
TINY UP UNTIL THAT, LIKELY OWING TO PRIMARY ASCENT/GENERATION   
REGION ABOVE THE DGZ).

 

 

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