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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! :arrowhead:

It's odd when I'm the more tempered one.  :lol:

At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa.  But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite.

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's odd when I'm the more tempered one.  :lol:

At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa.  But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite.

I’m thinking 2-4” in my hood. I know that’s wild and crazy thinking! :D

But, I think the southeast 1/3 of LOT’s CWA warrants an advisory.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's odd when I'm the more tempered one.  :lol:

At this point, just don't see a compelling case for an advisory for at least the northwest half and more like 2/3 of the LOT cwa.  But we'll see if things can trend better across the guidance suite.

Still lots (LOT's) of time for Chi-town Peeps

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

LOL, Watches expanded S in Ohio. Which office is winning that battle??

would love some more of it here in cincy but i have no room to complain thanks to sunday's surprise. 

 

local mets are steadily trying to raise awareness with each new model run but i dont want to bite yet.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

I think another issue with this system is it's very compact. That sfc low track is normally good for much of the Chicago metro, but the 850 mb and 700 mb lows are tucked in closer to the surface low than typically occurs.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Solid observation.  Not the best tilting with this system.  

We've had surface lows way down in southern/eastern Kentucky that produced good snows into the southern metro (2/13/07 is one example).  Can probably find even more dramatic examples than that in storms w/a good inverted trough extending well north.

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The 18z Euro bumped north very slightly, but not in a meaningful way, and remains very different from the NCEP guidance. In fact, since temperatures will be around to even above freezing, could make a case using the Euro as a perfect prog that we wouldn't need an advisory for most of our counties. The places that have the snow start earlier tomorrow night are probably gonna have enough impacts Wednesday morning to justify an advisory though.

While the latest ECMWF is generally a bit lower QPF wise farther north than the foreign guidance, it's probably not a meaningful difference. It's the NCEP guidance that stands out, particularly the NAMs. The GFS is not very different farther north, but it is farther north with the heavier banding across central IL and Indiana than the other globals.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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50 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

For the crazy SREF watchers, going to get a LOL worthy run at 21z. Going to be interesting if by some miracle the American models end up being correct about a stronger more NW storm. 

The spread is bi-modal with a cluster of MB members at 2-4” and a cluster of AR members at 6-8”

Not so crazy if you believe one over the other which gets you closer to globals

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