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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wonder if Michigan may be able to do slightly better with ratios.  Progged to be just a touch cooler in most of that state with the exception of the southeast corner.  So Josh may struggle a bit more with ratios than the areas nw of there.

Would love to stay at 32 or below, but even a couple hrs of 33F wouldn't be a total slop-fest. 2-24-16 comes to mind wrt the <10:1 storms (think RC mentioned it). That was a mushy mess but still plow-worthy and piles were made. I'll be satisfied with that outcome. Anything breaks better for us, all the better.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Total wild card at this point. One thing to keep in mind If we get a good burst and good dendrites it may not matter. Yesterdays snowfall, with temps of 30F-33F the entire time but very good dendrites/rates early on, produced 3.7" snow here on 0.23" liquid. On December 23, we had 2.4" of snow on 0.30" liquid with shredded flakes and temps near 0F. 

As of now, my guess would be that the banding sets up west, say coldwater/Jackson/Howell, per usual wit this kinda track near toledo or just east of there.

Either way it's fun to have something to atleast track.

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Reluctant to really go above 3" here due to the temp concerns.  I think the lake enhancement could be reaponsible for up to 1" or so, so the areas near the lake around Chicagoland and into northwest IN may come in with somewhat better amounts than areas farther west in LOT.

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While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking.  If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol.  Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through.  KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away.

I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it :pimp:

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23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking.  If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol.  Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through.  KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away.

I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it :pimp:

I predict you will get a foot. When's the last time you had a foot of snow from a single storm ?

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If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa.  Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall.  And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute.  

The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa.  Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall.  And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute.  

The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol

Unless the NAM keeps trending north and is correct and the Metro gets 6+ inches of lake enhanced snow that sticks due to higher rates (if only)

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa.  Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall.  And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute.  

The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol

got time to see the NW and stronger trends to take hold. 

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46 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

While not as nerve racking as usual...Yet.... for the Kitchen Sink zone in N Central IN, some of the 12Z model soundings are enough to keep the foot shaking.  If rates can stay heavy early Wed. should be ok but the yellow brick road doesn't lead to these parts lol.  Regardless this things gonna be a cement truck laying sidewalk as it comes through.  KIND is saying 5-9" for here and KIWX is calling 7-12" 2 miles away.

I'll call 6 and my back ain't shoveling any of it :pimp:

I'll meet you in the banter thread on Thursday when we can talk about the ways we got screwed on this one too.  Warm air, dry slot, miss south, miss north...

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Euro been counter-balancing the GFS/NAM's more NW trends. Meet ya in the middle

Yeah it's definitely going to be a nowcast for parts of Ohio, comparing the Euro to the NAM at 00z Thu there's about a 100 mile difference. NAM has the low around Bowling Green, OH while the Euro places it east of Cleveland. 

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If I were LOT, I don't know if I'd even bother issuing an advisory in most of the cwa.  Total amounts may make it into advisory criteria in some areas, but magnitude of road impacts are questionable overall.  And for Chicago metro, precip onset doesn't look to be until around the start of rush hour Wednesday morning, so not like there will be ample opportunity for conditions to go to shit prior to the commute.  

The best argument for an advisory may be the ridiculous lack of snow so far this winter, lol

Maybe they’ll just forecast white rain. No accumulations for anyone! :arrowhead:

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21 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Yeah it's definitely going to be a nowcast for parts of Ohio, comparing the Euro to the NAM at 00z Thu there's about a 100 mile difference. NAM has the low around Bowling Green, OH while the Euro places it east of Cleveland. 

Typically this battle would be a no brainer..

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