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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The track of the 00z run would probably result in better snow farther north than the verbatim output.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Do you have any opinion on my other post about the model differences (namely GFS vs everything else) in handling the stuff diving into the northern US from Canada as a possible explanation for the GFS lack of qpf farther north?

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Sitting here in the bullseye of this storm 3 days out reminds of last year's GHD storm that had 15"-20" forecast only for it to turn to crap with in 12 hours.  Granted this one is a bit less complicated, I'm still keeping my guard up.  

 

I will say my coffee this morning probably tastes better than those sipping in Chicago land, lol, JK.  

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png

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1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Sitting here in the bullseye of this storm 3 days out reminds of last year's GHD storm that had 15"-20" forecast only for it to turn to crap with in 12 hours.  Granted this one is a bit less complicated, I'm still keeping my guard up.  

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png

you keep your guard up until it's on the ground. It's weather believe nothing until it happens. 

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11 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Sitting here in the bullseye of this storm 3 days out reminds of last year's GHD storm that had 15"-20" forecast only for it to turn to crap with in 12 hours.  Granted this one is a bit less complicated, I'm still keeping my guard up.  

 

I will say my coffee this morning probably tastes better than those sipping in Chicago land, lol, JK.  

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png

TOL and us down here in FWAland are rowing the same boat. Sitting under the bullseye 72 hours out, but not at all confident that it is the final solution.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

0z EPS still has some left leaners (deeper solutions) at 90 hours.

 

eps slp.png

Given it looks like 6z improved, and the left leaning members are deeper and likely fling more precip into the "cold" sector, I'm liking these trends.  

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Figures, the 6z EPS losing the left leaners. No huge change overall, but maybe a slight tick to the east on the mean versus the 0z run. I guess I'm grasping at straws a bit, trying to turn what looks like a 1-3" event into 3-5" in my hood. Still, hoping we can get a good hit for the people in southern/central IL into Indiana and Ohio. :D

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1 hour ago, Chicago WX said:

Figures, the 6z EPS losing the left leaners. No huge change overall, but maybe a slight tick to the east on the mean versus the 0z run. I guess I'm grasping at straws a bit, trying to turn what looks like a 1-3" event into 3-5" in my hood. Still, hoping we can get a good hit for the people in southern/central IL into Indiana and Ohio. :D

Meanwhile gfs now tracks it almost over detroit. Pretty impressive system

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